Nation's largest retail group forecasts 4.4% gain in retail sales for this year
ABC News
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, is forecasting annual retail sales will grow at a faster clip this year than last year, citing consumers’ resilience despite lots of economic volatility
NEW YORK -- The National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, is forecasting annual retail sales will grow at a faster clip this year than last year, citing consumers' resilience despite lots of economic volatility.
But the group said Wednesday that the repercussions of the Iran war on consumer spending are too uncertain to incorporate into its outlook.
The National Retail Federation expects retail sales should rise this year by 4.4% over 2025 to $5.6 trillion, based on a new model developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, an independent economic advisory firm. In 2025, retail sales increased by 3.9% compared with the previous year, the group said.
The 2026 sales forecast exceeds the 3.6% average annual sales growth over the past 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 when sales growth was outsized.
The forecast excludes sales from auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
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