N.B. falls just short of housing-starts target 1 year after launch of strategy
CBC
New Brunswick has come just shy of hitting its goal of breaking ground on 6,000 new housing units annually, however experts doubt whether that target is enough to solve the province's housing crunch.
Since releasing its housing strategy in June 2023, the province has recorded 5,322 housing starts as of the start of July, according to Statistics Canada data.
Those housing starts include 2,964 recorded in the second half of 2023, and another 2,358 in the first and second quarters of this year.
That beats all previous years going back to the 1990s.
However, the province is going to need to see work started on even more units if it wants to keep pace with demand, said David Campbell, an economic development consultant based in Moncton.
"I would say the 6,000 [goal] is quite low. I think we probably need somewhere around 8,000 or even more per year through the early 2030s."
Released by Housing Minister Jill Green, the strategy is supposed to provide a three-year roadmap aimed at ensuring safe and affordable housing for New Brunswickers.
It involves spending aimed at boosting skilled trades positions, increasing the number of public housing units and offering more money for developers who participate in the province's rent-supplement program.
Overall, the strategy seeks to create conditions that would see 6,000 housing starts a year and limit annual rent increases to no more than an average of 2.5 per cent.
However, data from Statistics Canada shows rents in New Brunswick went up by an average of 13.8 per cent in the year since the strategy came out, an indication of just how low the province's residential vacancy rate remains.
Campbell said he did research on New Brunswick's housing needs in 2022 and determined the province was already in a deficit of about 10,000 units.
"And when I did this work, this was before ... we saw this big spurt in population," he said, noting the province's growth from just under 800,000 residents, in early 2022, to around 850,000, according to the latest estimates.
Campbell said the biggest barriers to development right now are increased interest rates and labour shortages.
He said the higher cost of borrowing in recent years has impacted how much financing a developer can receive, affecting how many units can be built.
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