Mexico's president is praised at home for handling Trump. But she must walk a fine line

Mexico appears to be taking a two-track approach to threats from the Trump administration: giving them what they want in terms of cracking down on fentanyl-trafficking cartels, while firing a shot across their bows when it comes to interfering directly in Mexico.

And that approach appears to have the support of Mexicans. Polls suggest President Claudia Sheinbaum enjoys about 80 per cent approval, with many of those polled citing her handling of the Trump administration.

Sheinbaum has cultivated a calm, reasonable but firm tone, and makes a point of never discussing U.S. demands on Mexico without also mentioning Mexico's grievances with the U.S., particularly the smuggling of U.S. arms into Mexico.

On Friday, Sheinbaum sent a bill to Congress that would amend the Mexican Constitution to bring in severe punishments for anyone who violates Mexican sovereignty — a clear warning to U.S. Republicans who have openly called for Washington to attack Mexican cartels without seeking Mexico's permission.

Last week, the U.S. designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. Canada did the same, for five of the six.

"They can designate them," said Sheinbaum on Monday, "but that doesn't give a pretext for intervention in Mexico. That's what we're saying with this constitutional reform: that just because you designate them in this way, that doesn't give you the right to intervene in our country."

Juan Carlos Baker was a key member of Mexico's team for the renegotiation of NAFTA during the first Trump administration, when he served as deputy minister of trade.

He says Sheinbaum's approach has so far been ratified by the markets. Mexico's stock market index is up seven per cent since Trump's inauguration, while U.S. indexes have recently declined.

"The [peso] exchange rate has not skyrocketed," said Baker. "So the markets are interpreting that her handling of the situation so far has been prudent."

Sheinbaum's approach may not be enough to prevent tariffs, he told CBC News, but it has combined a staunch defence of Mexico's positions with an effective cartel crackdown that most Mexicans wanted to see anyway.

"I think that the government recognizes that some of the claims or some of the accusations that President Trump has been making are difficult to reject," he said.

"Mexicans in different regions around the country see this situation with violence and insecurity on a daily basis. So claiming that doesn't exist and it's just a product of Donald Trump's imagination — that would be really hard to reconcile."

Sheinbaum had already given early indications that she was not sold on the approach of her predecessor and mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who pursued a policy of "hugs not bullets" (abrazos, no balazos) when dealing with organized crime.

Rather than object to the U.S. decision to designate the cartels as terrorists, Sheinbaum has pointed out that those who finance and arm cartels — including those based in the U.S. — should also be subject to prosecution under terrorism laws.