MBCs the X factor in U.P. polls

Rajbhars, Nishads, Nonia Chauhans and Sonkars set to play decisive role in final outcome

After six rounds of intense battle for Uttar Pradesh, the most backward castes (MBCs ) have emerged as the X factor. Hard to impress, difficult to retain, the dozen-odd castes will prove to be decisive in the final outcome. Understanding their mind is only slightly easier than making jaggery, the popular sweet that is offered to every guest with water.

One belt seems swinging in favour of the BJP, the other seems swayed by the Samajwadi Party. And sometimes, the tone gets so satirical that you feel that you are being played. The SP feels buoyed for, last time the Rajbhars, the Nishads, the Nonia Chauhans and the Kashyaps had deserted them. The BJP is trying to hold them by showing them the bulldozer, a symbol of security, and reminding them of the ration that reached them during the pandemic through the conveyor belt connected to the Double Engine.

However, in private, both describe them as blackmailers on whom huge amounts are being splurged so that they remain in good humour, at least till the EVM button is pressed.

There are inherent contradictions in the arguments that members of these castes offer but they don’t care. Their only interest seem to be where they could get the best bargain. For some, getting more share in job reservation is the only road for progress. They feel that the BJP didn’t keep the promises made in 2017 and hence they are headed to the SP alliance. However, there are those, for whom security and welfare schemes are paramount, particularly the housing scheme, where the BJP has delivered well.

For instance, Rajbhars attack the BJP for appropriating their king Suheldev and turn him into Kshatriya. According to legends, Suheldev defeated a Ghaznavaid general. “Why don’t the BJP leadership address him as Suheldev Rajbhar,” asks Ramesh Rajbhar in Nevada village. “Even the stamp the government released in his memory had no mention of Rajbhar.”

But their leadership talks of “ Jo Jaano Woh Mano [believe what you see],” the typical Buddhist and Ambedkarite thought. It is because the SBSP’s top leadership was initiated into politics by Bahujan Samaj Party founder Kanshi Ram. “The mission is to save the Constitution,” said Sanjay Rajbhar, coordinator of the Azamgarh zone of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. “We want a caste census and division of OBC bracket of 27% into three layers of 7%, 9% and 11%. Even if we get 2% reservation, it will go a long way in the progress of the community.” He agreed that it would be difficult to negotiate with their new friends, the Yadavs, as they used to get the highest chunk of jobs when the SP was in power. “But the point is, it is better to settle the score between two backwards rather then letting a part of forwards decide for us.”

In the same vein, the lawyer, a close confidant of SBSP founder Omprakash Rajbhar, agreed that his community was notorious for voting for liquor. At the Yogi Aditynanath rally in Jiyanpur, one met several Rajbhars who were rooting for ‘Yogi’s bulldozers’ that were on display. “They are meant for who have squatted on government’s land. The BJP has taken good care of us,” was the common refrain. However, Mr. Rajbhar said it was just a ploy to earn some money in the election season. “As we are a small party, we can’t distribute money. The BJP has looted a lot, let it splurge some of it on those who suffered the most during the pandemic,” he said.