Mark Carney has a national unity problem. A Liberal voice in Calgary might help

Viewed from a certain angle, it could be read as good news that only 30 per cent of Albertans believe their province would be better off on its own, a share that has grown only slightly over the last five years. In a hypothetical referendum, just 28 per cent said they would vote to secede. 

But among those who believe Alberta would be better off outside of Canada, feelings have seemingly hardened. And a referendum is no longer purely hypothetical.

"What I always tell [people outside Alberta] is like, hey, Alberta has been a place of western alienation for a long time, and that's been worthy of resolving for a long time. What you're seeing right now is it getting louder and being more legitimized than it's ever been," says Corey Hogan, the newly elected Liberal MP for Calgary Confederation.

"I've worked in the public opinion space a long time. And ultimately, public opinion does follow the conversation. That's just a simple reality. And so we're at this moment right now where the conversation has shifted. Public opinion will shift if we don't get on top of this. And we need to take this very seriously."

Hogan, a former political consultant who then worked as a deputy minister in both Rachel Notley's Alberta NDP and Jason Kenney's UCP governments, compares the conversation in Alberta about separation now to public opinion a decade ago on a carbon tax in that province. Initially, most Albertans didn't feel strongly one way or the other. But the debate was ultimately driven by the loudest and most polarized voices.

When Hogan says the conversation about Alberta has shifted, he says he is "referring to the fact that being a separatist is now a thing people say at cocktail parties in Alberta."

At least in Hogan's adult life — he's 44 years old — he had not previously encountered such party chatter. 

"So you are starting to see a social acceptability to the idea of being an Alberta separatist that honestly, I find a little baffling, but I also find very concerning," he said.

Holding the country together has always been one of the primary tasks of a Canadian prime minister. But given the cocktail chatter, it is fair to say that responsibility may weigh heavier on Mark Carney than it has on any prime minister since Jean Chrétien. 

It is too easy to blame Carney's predecessor for separatist sentiments in Alberta. The roots of western alienation are deep — Mary Janigan's 2013 book Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark takes its title from an iconic bumper sticker of the 1970s, but actually focuses on a federal-provincial conference in 1918 — and can't solely be pinned on the federal government. Hogan, for instance, points to the general dominance of voices from Central Canada in the public discussion of politics in this country.

It's also not hard to build an argument that the criticism heaped on Justin Trudeau as an alleged opponent of the province's oil and gas industry is undeserved — the purchase and completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) was not cheap, either practically or politically, and oil production reached a record high in 2024. (If Trudeau was anti-oil, he was at least not very good at it.)

But in Calgary, Hogan argues, the federal purchase of TMX is not understood as an example of the federal government acting for the benefit of Alberta, but as an example of regulatory failure and capital flight. And while some voices in Alberta might unfairly latch on to federal climate initiatives as grounds for complaint, Hogan says, a policy like the government's clean electricity regulations could be viewed as putting a heavier burden on western provinces.

Carney is eventually going to be tested by the same sorts of policy questions that bedevilled the Trudeau government. If it was easy to square the circle on climate and resource policy to the satisfaction of everyone, someone would have done it already.

For now, Hogan suggests there needs to be an emphasis on relationship-building.