Mark Carney charts course for Alberta in dying hours of campaign

Once seen as flyover territory during federal campaigns, Alberta has turned into a hotbed of political activity on the final weekend before election day.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney is travelling to Alberta on Sunday for a pair of events, with rallies at 2:30 p.m. in Edmonton, and 5:30 p.m. in Calgary. The visit marks Carney's second event in Calgary during this campaign. Both events are listed on the party's website.

The planned visits come two days after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre jetted into Calgary on Friday, drawing a large, cheering crowd. Earlier in the campaign, Poilievre packed an industrial warehouse near Edmonton with supporters, which included former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.

The focus on Alberta comes as political watchers have speculated several seats in both Edmonton and Calgary are tight races between the Conservatives and Liberals. The possibility of taking multiple seats in both cities represents a stark change from recent Liberal history.

After the Liberals picked up four seats in Alberta in 2015, the party's best result in the province in decades, they were wiped out across Alberta in 2019, before winning Edmonton Centre and Calgary Skyview in 2021.

Pollster Janet Brown says the party is dropping in on Alberta because the difference between a Liberal majority or minority government could come down to ridings in Western Canada.

"Mark Carney is very focused on how many more seats he needs to flip into majority territory," said Brown.

"I think he's counting with his fingers and his toes right now that it's going to come down to individual seats."

Brown also took note of Poilievre's visit to Calgary on Friday.

She argues that holding the Conservative party's Alberta seats is important, because even if Poilievre loses Monday's election, he needs to hold the Liberals to a minority and hold onto party leadership so he can challenge them in another election.

"This is the last line of defence for him. This is the place that's going to keep the Liberals to a minority so the Conservatives can regroup and maybe try and win another election in a couple years," Brown said.

Ken Boessenkool, a political strategist and partner at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, planned several federal election campaign tours for former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. He said it's not unusual for the Liberals to stop in Alberta near the end of a campaign, but he believes two rallies there a day before voting closes makes a statement.

"I think it says that the underlying numbers are moving," Boessenkool said. 

"I understand that the numbers in Alberta have been shifting over the last 48 hours, and I think they're making a play."