Majority of UCP supporters and Albertans want new party leader, survey says

Alberta voters would be more inclined to cast a ballot for the United Conservative Party with a new leader, according to a survey published Tuesday.

As Premier Jason Kenney heads into a party leadership review, nearly 40 per cent of adults surveyed said they'd be more likely to vote for the UCP in the next election with Kenney gone.

More than half of people who said they voted UCP in the 2019 provincial election said they'd be more likely to vote for the UCP with a new leader, the new survey said.

"I honestly was expecting his approval numbers to be going up and the race tightening, but it isn't," said Marc Henry president of ThinkHQ Public Affairs, which conducted the online survey of 1,135 Albertans.

The survey suggests the NDP has an edge, with 41 per cent saying they'd lean toward voting for the New Democrats were an election held today, compared to 30 per cent who would be more likely to vote UCP. Much of that NDP support comes from residents of Calgary and Edmonton.

Other recent polls have found a narrower margin of support between the two parties.

Henry says his company's surveys show that for the past four months, Albertans' appetite to replace Kenney as party leader has hovered consistently above 60 per cent.

"Oil prices are way up and revenues are way up for the province, and employment's getting better, and the economy's doing better, and there's a fight brewing with Trudeau, and you know, these are all forces that typically help a premier in Alberta," Henry said.

Two-thirds of Albertans surveyed disapproved of the job Kenney is doing as party leader.

Henry said the survey doesn't give insight into how UCP members might vote in the leadership review, but does paint a picture about how Albertans may react to the result.

When asked for reaction to the survey, Harrison Fleming, a spokesperson for Kenney's leadership campaign, said in an email said they are encouraged by feedback they're hearing from grassroots conservatives and Albertans.

"The premier looks forward to continuing the good work of Alberta's economic recovery," he wrote.

The survey results suggest the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta has become a home for conservatives disenchanted with Kenney.

About a tenth of survey respondents said they intended to vote Wildrose in the next election. Nearly half of those potential Wildrose voters said they'd be more likely to vote for the UCP if Kenney was gone.