LNG plant cancellation could kill premier's shale gas ambitions, says energy insider

The decision to not build a liquefied natural gas export terminal in Saint John may also spell the end of Premier Blaine Higgs's long-held ambition of reviving shale gas development in New Brunswick.

Repsol's decision, announced Thursday, cuts off the most lucrative possible outlet for the sale of gas extracted in the province, according to both energy insiders and environmentalists. 

"It would not be good news, for sure," said Todd McDonald, president of the Halifax-based gas trading firm Energy Atlantica. "It would have given a lot of motivation to develop shale gas because you had an instant [European] market with access to high prices.

"I don't want to say it kills it, but it's not good."

Gas from New Brunswick could still be sold into the United States via pipeline, McDonald said, but because of plentiful gas supplies there, the price might not be high enough to justify the cost of development.

"There's still a market for it and it's economic, but it's not as good," he said. "It's not terrible … but it's not anything people are going to move heaven and earth for."

Higgs has long championed shale gas development and was part of a government that aggressively promoted the sector and saw confrontations between protesters and police near Rexton in 2013.

His rhetoric ramped up again after the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, when Europe faced the loss of natural gas supplies from Russia. 

Gas extracted in New Brunswick was a "possible solution," for Europe, Higgs said then, because it would be cheaper to ship from a Saint John export terminal than Western Canadian gas travelling by pipeline all the way to the facility.

Louise Comeau of the Conservation Council of New Brunswick said that combination was never realistic.

"These were ideas that the premier put on the table as options that he thought, 'if we could combine them, could we get an outcome that would work?' They never were going to work."

Higgs brushed off those takes on Friday, telling reporters a provincial gas industry could still be viable "in order to meet our own needs and those of allies in Europe," though he didn't explain how the gas would get to Europe without Repsol's terminal.

He also said developing more natural gas for the local or regional market would provide an alternate energy source that would allow both NB Power and Nova Scotia to shut down coal-generated power plants in time for a 2030 federal deadline. 

"It's not about me saying 'why don't we use more gas?'" Higgs said.