Libya delays long-awaited election seen as key to peace

People visit the old town of the Libyan capital Tripoli, yesterday.

Authorities overseeing war-torn Libya’s first presidential election have confirmed that holding it tomorrow as scheduled is “impossible” and suggested a month-long delay.The vote was intended to mark a fresh start for the oil-rich North African country, a year after a landmark ceasefire and more than a decade after its 2011 revolt that toppled and killed Muammar Gaddafi.But speculation of a delay had been mounting for weeks.There were bitter disputes over the vote’s legal basis, the powers of the winner and the candidacies of several deeply divisive figures.Yesterday, the chairman of the parliamentary committee overseeing the vote wrote to the assembly’s speaker saying that “after consulting the technical, judicial and security reports, we inform you of the impossibility of holding the elections on the date of December 24, 2021”. It did not propose an alternative to Friday, a date set last year during UN-led peace talks in Tunis.The election, intended to go hand-in-hand with parliamentary polls, was part of a United Nations-led peace process, yet the UN’s special envoy Jan Kubis resigned just weeks before the ballot.Among the controversial candidates were Gaddafi’s son Seif al-Islam, whom the International Criminal Court accuses of war crimes, and eastern military chief Khalifa Haftar, who led a failed assault on Tripoli.Interim prime minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah’s candidacy also sparked controversy as he had pledged not to run as part of his original leadership bid.“Every single faction in Libya has an issue with one of these three candidates,” said Claudia Gazzini, a Libya expert at the International Crisis Group think-tank.“So they tried to stop these candidates from running using legal means, but failing that there seems to have been an informal agreement between some factions not to let the elections go forward,” she said.Many analysts have warned that violence could easily flare again surrounding the elections.The political uncertainty has raised tensions on the ground across Libya, which is controlled by an array of armed groups, including thousands of foreign mercenaries.Gunmen had deployed in the suburbs of Tripoli on Tuesday, using a tank and machine gun-mounted pickup trucks to block roads in the Fornaj district, although tensions eased later in the day.US ambassador to Libya Richard Norland yesterday “urged calm and encouraged steps that can continue to de-escalate the tense security situation”. The embassy said in a statement that “work towards elections should be a priority, in line with strong public desires.”The spokesman for the French government, Gabriel Attal, said France remained “committed to the smooth running of the electoral process until its end.”Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock declared the ballot of “crucial importance” and vowed to work in tight collaboration with the UN to ensure it takes place.“If elections are postponed without any kind of path forward, then anxieties will be high,” warned Amanda Kadlec, a former member of the UN panel of experts on Libya.“I could totally envision there being a breakout of conflict at local levels that could erupt and cascade into other parts of the country or within each region,” she said.The country’s electoral commission, the HNEC, later suggested delaying the vote to January 24.Libya expert Wolfram Lacher tweeted that the House of Representatives would have to approve the date, “which it is unlikely to do”.“HNEC move appears designed to place responsibility squarely on HoR,” he said.Analysts had suggested that the delay in announcing a postponement was because no side wanted to take responsibility for the move.Libya has seen a year of relative calm since the October 2020 ceasefire following a year-long offensive by Haftar’s forces on Tripoli, with both sides backed by foreign states.But with vast stockpiles of weapons left behind by the Gaddafi regime, the potential for new fighting in Libya remains ever-present.