Liberals hold four-point lead over Conservatives heading into Monday’s vote: Ipsos

New polling data from Ipsos suggests tight national numbers obscure a Liberal advantage in key provinces such as Ontario, Québec and British Columbia.

Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is holding a four-percentage point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives on the eve of Monday’s general election, new data from Ipsos suggests.

But the tight national race obscures the Liberals’ advantage in the key provinces of Ontario and Québec that will likely determine if the party receives a fourth consecutive mandate from Canadian voters.

The Ipsos polling, conducted for Global News and released Sunday, has the Liberals at 42 percent support nationwide, followed by 38 per cent for the Conservatives and single-digit support – just nine per cent – for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats.

The poll also suggests that, with a day to go, most Canadian voters have made up their minds.

“At this late juncture, just five per cent of Canadians remain undecided, and 71 per cent of those who have made up their minds are ‘absolutely certain’ of their choice,” Ipsos said in a statement.

“With votes now locked in, the question now focuses on voter turnout and motivation.”

Ipsos’ survey has Carney’s Liberals leading in every region of the country except Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and that’s bad news for the Conservatives.

“The key to the likely Liberal victory is found in Canada’s most populous provinces: in Ontario, the Liberals enjoy an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, and in Québec, the Liberals benefit from a double-digit lead over all other rivals,” Ipsos said in a statement.