Liberals eyeing more seats in Tory-blue Alberta, as some ridings may be tight contests

Until last month, Lindsay Luhnau had rejected requests to run as a federal Liberal in Alberta's energy capital.

"It's not easy to be a Liberal in Calgary," Luhnau said. "I've been asked many times and always said no."

Her answer changed last month when the governing Liberals changed leaders, and she figured the tide could turn.

"Once [Liberal Leader] Mark Carney was successful, I called and said, 'Is this spot still open?' said Luhnau. She was nominated to run in Calgary Centre four days after the writ drop to launch the federal election.

The campaign is now at the three-week mark, and pollsters suggest Calgary Centre is one of a handful of urban Alberta ridings that will likely be tight contests between the federal Conservatives and Liberals.

It's the first time in recent memory the western province has been one to watch.

Tory blood runs deep in Alberta, and its long-standing preference for the Conservatives isn't diminishing, said pollster Janet Brown. But a number of seats have become toss-ups this election as the progressive vote appears to be consolidating behind the Liberals, she said.

"The Conservatives are remaining strong. In fact, their support may even be growing in Alberta," said Brown. "But the reason Alberta is going to be competitive is because the NDP vote seems to be collapsing."

Until 2015, Calgarians had not elected a Liberal since 1968, a streak that started and ended with Pierre and Justin Trudeau's respective campaigns for prime minister. Today, the Liberals and NDP each hold two Alberta seats.

This time around, political scientists point to four Calgary ridings that will be competitive alongside a handful in Edmonton.

"Before 2015, during federal elections, Alberta was often a flyover province," said political scientist Lori Williams.

But in a campaign focusing on affordability, the economy, and who will best stand up to the tariff and annexation threats of U.S. President Donald Trump, Williams noted that Alberta has gone from flyover to stopover.

"Some of the behaviour of the leaders is raising questions about whether things are changing," said Williams, with Mount Royal University in Calgary.

"It's clear that there's a lot more going on in Alberta than monolithic conservatism."