‘King dollar’ seen vulnerable in 2024 if Federal Reserve pivots

Fed's dovish December pivot boosts case for weakening dollar to keep falling in 2024, despite U.S. economy strength.

The Federal Reserve’s dovish December pivot has boosted the case for the weakening dollar to keep falling into 2024, though strength in the U.S. economy could limit the greenback’s decline.

After soaring to a two-decade high on the back of the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022, the U.S. currency has been largely range-bound this year on the back of resilient U.S. growth and the central bank’s vow to keep borrowing costs elevated.

Last week’s Fed meeting marked an unexpected shift after Chairman Jerome Powell said the historic monetary policy tightening that brought rates to their highest level in decades was likely over, thanks to cooling inflation. Policymakers now project 75 basis points cut next year. Falling rates are generally seen as a headwind for the dollar, making assets in the U.S. currency less attractive to yield-seeking investors. Though strategists had expected the dollar to weaken next year, a faster pace of rate cuts could accelerate the currency’s decline.

Still, betting on a weaker dollar has been a perilous undertaking in recent years, and some investors are wary of jumping the gun. A U.S. economy that continues to outperform its peers could be one factor presenting an obstacle for bearish investors.

The Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, along with post-pandemic policies to boost U.S. growth, ‘fueled the notion of American exceptionalism and delivered the most powerful dollar rally since the 1980s,’ said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale.

With the Fed set to ease policy, ‘some of those gains should be reversed.”

The dollar is on track for a 1% loss this year against a basket of its peers.