Judge the success of the Liberal-NDP deal by what it did — and how long it lasted

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Since the Liberals and New Democrats signed a confidence-and-supply agreement last month, there has been no shortage of analysis about the political implications for the major federal parties.

Did the NDP get enough out of the deal? Will it suffer as the "junior partner" in this arrangement? Are the Liberals abandoning "centrist" voters? Will the Conservatives ultimately benefit from being able to rally a plurality of voters against this progressive alliance?

Those are all fair questions.

But when we eventually measure the success or failure of the Liberal-NDP agreement, it won't be enough simply to look at the results of the next election. We'll also have to look at the life and output of the 44th Parliament.

Those are the ultimate questions for every minority Parliament. How long did it last? And what did it do?

In the last 75 years, there have been 10 other minority Parliaments — ones in which no single party held a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.

The shortest was the one presided over by Joe Clark's Progressive Conservative government in 1979 – that Parliament lasted 66 days from throne speech to dissolution. The longest minority ran 888 days from 2006 to 2008, covering Stephen Harper's first term as prime minister.

The average lifespan of those 10 minority Parliaments was 526 days.

The current one, which has survived for 147 days, might not have seemed to be in any immediate danger of falling apart before the Liberals and NDP made their deal. But one of the potential selling points of such a deal is the long-term stability it offers.

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According to the text agreed to by both parties, the current confidence-and-supply agreement is meant to stay in place until the date when the House traditionally would adjourn for the summer in June 2025. If this Parliament makes it that far, it will have lasted more than 1,300 days — which would make it the longest-lasting minority by leaps and bounds.

If an election isn't called until the fall of 2025, this Parliament would come close to surviving a full four years.

Setting a new standard for durability would be a decent accomplishment. But parliamentary democracy is not only a test of endurance. What's done with that time matters at least as much.