Is Manitoba's wild weather a sign of climate change?

Within the span of a year, Manitoba went from having one of its driest summers in decades to having one of its worst floods on record.

"Everybody who lives on the Prairies for any length of time knows that we have lots of swings, but this is a pretty crazy one," said Danny Blair, co-director of the Prairie Climate Centre and a climatologist at the University of Winnipeg.

Several climate experts told CBC that while they can't say definitively that recent weather events are a result of human-driven climate change, they agree it may be a sign of things to come — and a reminder that people need to be prepared for more extreme weather in the future.

Last summer Manitoba set a record for the driest July since 1873; it was the 42nd driest summer in 146 years of records. The winter of 2020-21 was the fifth driest on record.

Fast forward to spring 2022, and while March this year was drier than normal, April was the second wettest in 151 years, with four times the normal amount of precipitation.

"Does that mean that climate change is here in a really big way this year?" Blair said to CBC Up to Speed host Marjorie Dowhos earlier this week.

"No, that's not the way it works, but it's symptomatic. It's indicative of what we should expect more often in the future, and that we should prepare for."

Blair said the cold and wet winter and spring Manitobans experienced is also an effect of La Niña — a weather pattern that happens every three to five years. La Niña years are often associated with cold and wet winters and springs, followed by hot dry summers, Blair said.

"Which may be a blessing because we need things to dry out for our farmers, and for our basements and for our communities, so we may actually see yet another flip-flop in our weather in the coming weeks," he said.

Variability is a normal part of Prairie climate, but the swings could become even more dramatic, Blair said.

"We need to make sure that we are ready for, in the years ahead, even wilder swings in the weather," he said.

"And that includes our frequently flooded communities. Floods are not going away with climate change; they may even become worse."

While it's hard to link Manitoba's recent weather directly to climate change, Blair said Manitobans should be preparing themselves to be more resilient to extreme weather events, like making investments in infrastructure to protect against floods and droughts, and by cutting down on fossil fuel consumption.

Nathan Gillett, a researcher with Environment and Climate Change Canada, also said Manitoba's recent weather can't be directly linked to human-caused climate change — because not enough studies have been done with the current data — but it is consistent with warming trends seen around the world.