Iran and Israel may have taken a step back from a catastrophic regional war

As the sun rose over both Iran and Israel Friday morning, the details of what happened overnight near the Iranian city of Isfahan remained convoluted. But as the hours passed an initial sense of fear and apprehension gradually gave way to relief.

It appears — for the moment, anyway — that both adversaries are signalling they want to end a worrying spiral of strike and counter strike, and re-establish some guardrails in their intensely adversarial relationship that has threatened to engulf the Middle East in a wider regional war. 

"If this is the extent of Israel's retaliation it could be described as a de-escalatory strike," said Andreas Kreig, a senior lecturer with the School of Security Studies at King's College London.

The first reports about the incident in Isfahan came from Iranian state media, indicating there had been explosions and some kind of intrusion by enemy aircraft.   

U.S. broadcasters quoted American officials who said Israeli missiles had hit an Iranian site. Then, hours later, Iranian state TV reported three small drones had been brought down. 

Iran's air defence system has been on high alert for weeks, but especially since Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran's unprecedented drone and missile strike overnight on April 13, which saw hundreds of projectiles launched from Iran toward Israel.

It was the first time in the decades-long confrontation between the two countries that Iran had directly attacked Israel, and the scale of the missile barrage — which included more than 300 drones, rockets and ballistic missiles — surprised observers inside and outside the country.  

It prompted Israel's government to declare that some kind response was imperative.

Less than two weeks earlier, rockets fired from an Israeli aircraft had demolished an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, killing 11 people, among them two of Iran's most senior military commanders.

Israel's war cabinet has convened several times since the Iranian attack, and while Israeli media reported a decision for some kind of response had been made, the actual attack had been delayed on more than one occasion. 

Many in Israel believed the situation would remain quiet but tense until after the Jewish Passover holiday next week, so the Isfahan strikes overnight Thursday — assuming they were indeed launched by Israel — came as somewhat of a surprise.

Another unusual aspect of the Isfahan incident is the nature of the attack, which reports indicate came from much smaller drones than what could have conceivably been launched from Israel.

That may have been a means for Israel to follow through with its threat of retaliation without triggering escalation, said Krieg.

"The use of small drones, such as quadcopters provides a degree of implausible deniability that could help Iran downplay the effect of the attack," he said in an email with CBC News.