In Iran, anti-regime resolve persists as security forces intensify bid to crush movement

One year after the historic Women, Life, Freedom uprising rocked the foundations of the Islamic Republic in Iran, authorities have smothered the movement — at least on the surface.

Dissidents inside and outside prison walls have been silenced as authorities ramped up their tactics around last weekend's anniversary of Mahsa Jina Amini's death in September 2022 after she was taken into custody.

Yet, a discernible shift in Iranian public sentiment has come to light: the once-dominant idea of reform has been overtaken, with a broad consensus among Iranians now favoring regime change.

"It has taken some 15 years to come to the conclusion that this current state of affairs is incapable of reform," prominent thought-leader Majid Tavakoli told CBC News.

Tavakoli's imminent jailing stands as a testament to the regime's partial success in crippling the movement that arose after Amini's death.

"The goal is to eliminate me," said Tavakoli, who will be remanded into custody at Tehran's Evin prison in two weeks.

Tavakoli has challenged the Islamic Republic on multiple fronts through his writings that have been shared on social media, analyzing the political structure of the regime and criticizing everything from the absence of political freedoms to its human rights record.

He has already been jailed for seven years, and shared descriptions of torture and solitary confinement from that time. He now faces another five years in prison on charges such as spreading "propaganda against the state."

Tavakoli asserts that despite differing motivations, neither Western countries nor the opposition in the diaspora have seized this pivotal moment to aid Iranians in their pursuit of a liberated Iran.

"Bringing political change is not the task of the people inside Iran, but that of a political force based outside of Iran," he said.

The regime's escalated assault, meanwhile, has ensnared a gamut of society — from the jailing of women activists and journalists to protesters and cultural icons like singer Mehdi Yarrahi to lengthy prison sentences for rapper Toomaj. 

Dozens of youth have been abducted by security forces, their fates unknown — details documented by Aban Families For Justice, an alliance of families of victims of countrywide anti-regime protests in 2019.

Yet, Tavakoli said, beneath the silenced dissent, an irreversible cultural and political shift has developed within Iran — a collective hunger for complete regime change, rather than reforming the Islamic Republic that has held power since 1979.

Tavakoli himself has long held that view.