How safe is B.C.'s safe federal Green Party seat?

The Green Party of Canada's flagship federal seat, occupied by an award-winning B.C. parliamentarian, could be in danger of being trumped by the tariff and sovereignty issue in the current federal election.

Talking to voters on the streets in the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands — one defined by its natural oceanside beauty and environmentally conscious voters, many of whom are retirees— doubts are surfacing about whether current Green MP Elizabeth May will win again.

"It won't be Green, it won't be NDP," said one Saanich resident to CBC News. "There's a little bit of Conservative here," said another.

The uncertainty is a result of this election having one over-reaching issue so far. Who between the Liberals and Conservatives can form government and best react to the economic and sovereignty threat posed to Canada from U.S. President Donald Trump?

According to some campaigners, that clouds Elizabeth May's candidacy as she has repeatedly run, and won, on a promise of being a locally engaged parliamentarian and an advocate for environmentalism and solutions to climate change.

Will even the most hardcore Green voters in the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding vote to ensure one party or the other forms a majority?

"Strategic voting … can kill us," said David Merner, who lives in Sooke B.C., on Vancouver Island and was a 2015 Liberal candidate and then ran for the Greens in 2019.

"I think Elizabeth May is going to face a real challenge," he said. "I think she'll win, but she's in for a real battle."

Challenging May is the Liberal's David Beckham, an expert in environmental remediation and renewable energy, the Conservative's Cathie Ounsted, a former councillor and chairperson of the Victoria Airport Authority Board of Directors and the NDP's Colin Plant, who's been a teacher in the Saanich School District for 25 years.

Some polls show May currently running third behind the Conservatives' Ounsted and the Liberals' Beckham, but May's campaign says polls like 338canada are misleading because they look at the past election results, what is trending nationally and then provide an aggregated projection.

"I don't put a lot of confidence in polls," May told CBC News recently while campaigning in Saanich.

"When I was elected here in 2011, there wasn't a single poll that thought I had a chance, so I relied more on what I heard on the street when I'm going door to door."

May has carved out a unique position for herself and her party in the House of Commons, working across party lines and framing herself as a powerful voice holding governments to account.

"In this riding, having Elizabeth's voice in Parliament is far more powerful than having another party's candidate who is automatically told to toe the party line," read a recent communiqué from her campaign. "They are not an independent voice that can represent your concerns."