How long will Mark Carney's honeymoon in Quebec last?
CBC
As Mark Carney's term as prime minister begins, he's flying high in Quebec.
The most popular federal leader by far in the province, he would likely win a majority of seats if the election were held today.
"There's a significant Mark Carney bump in our polls," Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president of polling firm Léger marketing, told CBC in an interview.
"Early signs are that his presence really lifts the Liberals' fortunes in Quebec," he said.
But Dallaire and other experts believe Carney has yet to be tested on many Quebec-specific issues and irritants that have historically plagued Canadian prime ministers — such as secularism, language laws, and provincial autonomy.
"We're moving from a phase where the positive predispositions towards Mark Carney will now be tested in a more real-time, harder battlefield," Dallaire said.
Experts say the main reason for Carney's popularity in Quebec is pretty simple, and it's the same reason that he's won support in the rest of the country: his qualifications in the face of threats posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
"We know that this is going to be an election that's going to be not only centred on, but now it looks completely focused on, the relationship with the United States," University of Ottawa political science professor André Lecours told CBC in an interview.
Dallaire said Quebecers view Carney — with his experience leading central banks and in the private sector — as the best person to counter Trump's tariff threats.
Miville Tremblay, a senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, worked closely with Carney for years at the Bank of Canada, when Carney was governor and Tremblay was liaison with the Quebec financial community.
"We need an expert. We need someone who has crisis management experience, who's tough as nails and takes our interests to heart," Tremblay said.
Dallaire said as long as Trump and tariffs are a major issue, Carney should be able to maintain support in Quebec.
But that could change.
"What is the main ballot box question in a few weeks? Is it still about who's in the best position to defend Quebec and Canada against the threats coming from the United States? Or will the debates shift to something different?" Dallaire said.
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