How higher oil prices could pump more money out of your wallet this fall

If the more bullish forecasts prove accurate, a return to triple-digit oil prices could be just around the corner.

We've been there before — including last year, on repeated occasions from 2011-14 and way back in 2008, when oil surpassed the $100 US-per-barrel mark.

This time around, however, Canadians are grappling with sharply higher prices for many essentials, and increasing oil prices could serve to siphon more money from their wallets to fuel their vehicles.

Calgary energy analyst Vijay Muralidharan said a few key factors influence the price of gasoline in Canada, but the underlying price of oil is the most significant.

"If crude jumps, it's a big influence on gasoline pricing," said Muralidharan, managing director of R Cube Economic Consulting Inc.

Beyond elevated prices at the pumps, however, experts say higher oil prices also have implications for the cost of food, transportation and travel — and could impact inflation.

"There is one impact that we observe ... at the pumps when we fill up our own car, but there are significantly other impacts that we are facing because the entire supply chain is operated on oil and its derivatives," said Opher Baron, a distinguished professor of operations management at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management.

The price of gas is never far from the minds of drivers, who see the impact of price fluctuations every time they fill up their tanks.

With regular media attention, drivers know that when oil prices go up, fuel prices tend to follow — often more quickly than when the reverse happens, Baron said.

"The companies know how to respond really well when they have to increase prices, and when it's time to decrease, they'll do it — but it's a bit slow," Baron said.

The shift in gas prices is typically something people have to deal with if they drive to work or school, he said.

But do climbing oil prices have an impact on the kinds of vehicles that people choose to buy?

Huw Williams, national spokesperson for the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association, said it's not that easy to predict where oil prices will and will not go, and consumers are aware of that.

As a result, they "are not immediately sensitive to price changes in oil," and so tend to choose their vehicles based on their overall needs, rather than strictly on their fuel economy, he said.