How Doug Ford and his PCs won their 3rd straight Ontario election

Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives' victory in Thursday's Ontario election came as the result of a campaign that focused ruthlessly on the one issue capturing the minds of Canadians right now, a leader who worked relentlessly to make the most of his opportunity, and perfect political timing.  

Ford's PCs were elected or leading in 80 of Ontario's 124 seats early Tuesday, making him the first leader since the 1950s to win three consecutive majorities in this province

Success in politics means winning elections, so the majority three-peat means the name Doug Ford must now be included with the likes of Bill Davis, Leslie Frost, James Whitney and Oliver Mowat in conversations about the most successful Ontario premiers of all time.

"This election, we promised to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario and I'm so proud of the support we received," Ford told the crowd in his speech at his election night celebration in Toronto. 

Ford had set his sights higher than just another status-quo majority.  "The bigger the mandate I receive from you, the better we'll be able to protect our province," he said in his first speech of the campaign.

Measured by seats, Ford's mandate is actually smaller than the one he had before triggering the election. However, a majority is a majority, so Ford has now won himself another four years in power.  

Ford's political advisers had been urging him for months to call an early election, and their motivation was clear.

The goal was to get to the polls before anything could happen to hurt Ford's chances of winning, particularly the possibility of criminal charges in the Greenbelt scandal against anyone connected to the premier's office, or the prospect of a future federal Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre doing anything that would sour Ontario voters on the Tory brand. 

The Greenbelt controversy stems from the Ford government's decision to give certain developers the right to build homes on protected land.

But beyond the reason of pure political advantage, the PC team needed an ostensible reason for the election that they could sell to voters. 

Donald Trump handed them one just weeks after he won the U.S. presidential election. 

Trump threatened in late November to slap 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian exports to the U.S. immediately after his inauguration.

Credit the PC team, led by campaign director Kory Teneycke, for realizing that an election in these circumstances would make the ballot question "Who's the best person to lead Ontario under the threat of tariffs?" and for knowing that this was a winning formula for Ford. 

And Doug Ford seized the moment.