Hazy outlook as Omicron creates greater uncertainty, misery for air travellers

Travellers wait in line to check bags at the Alaska Airlines ticket counter at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

2022 is likely to be another challenging year for the global aviation industry due to the rapid surge in infections triggered by the Omicron variant of Covid-19 pandemic. Experts have cautioned about a slow rebound in international traffic and still constrained business travel in the medium term with rating agency Fitch expecting global air traffic to return to pre-pandemic levels only in 2024. Omicron has forced thousands of flight cancellations and delays around the world because of staffing shortages linked to the virus, scrambling travellers' holiday plans. More than 3,000 commercial flights have been cancelled worldwide on Tuesday mostly due to the Omicron coronavirus variant surge, according to the tracking website Flightaware. Clearly, the mounting wave of Covid-19 infections driven by Omicron created greater uncertainty and misery for holiday makers. At least 1,200 cancelled flights were within, into, or out of the United States. More than 13,000 flights have been delayed globally, with nearly 7,000 delays reported in the US. Airlines said staffing issues related to the resurgence of coronavirus was to blame for the ongoing cancellations. On Monday, bad weather in the western US was also an issue. Air travel remains a global headache with aircrew and ground staff falling sick or going into quarantine after exposure to the new Covid-19 variant, multiple airlines have acknowledged. Omicron has caused a wave of sickness among airline staff and some US airlines have attributed their cancellations to staff members who have caught or been exposed to the coronavirus. Major airlines including Lufthansa, Delta, United Airlines, JetBlue, British Airways and Alaska Airlines have been forced to cancel flights. "We entered the holiday season with the highest staffing levels we've had since the pandemic began and are using all resources available to us to cover our staffing needs," a JetBlue spokesman said. The highly transmissible Omicron strain has sent new cases soaring across the globe, with countries reviving dreaded lockdowns, major sports leagues cancelling Boxing Day football and rugby fixtures and governments including the United States scrambling to boost testing and vaccinations. As Omicron spreads ever more gloom around the world ahead of New Year's Eve, governments are moving at different speeds to contain the scourge, with some reimposing restrictions immediately and others hesitating to spoil the party again. Analysing the current situation, the Airport Council International (ACI) noted that passenger traffic in European airports has decreased by 20% since the detection of the Omicron variant. Additionally, apart from the decline in passenger traffic, the load factors on flights to and from European Union Member States airports have dropped from 66% to 54%, ACI said. “Beyond the holiday season, there is no doubt that Omicron will take its toll on passenger traffic in the first quarter of 2022. But the extent to which we need to revise our expectations will primarily depend on whether Governments continue with knee-jerk reactions or not,” said Olivier Jankovec, director general (ACI Europe). Certain studies suggest that the Omicron is more transmissible than previous variants, like Delta, but some data indicates that its symptoms are milder. Despite the variant's extraordinary ability to infect people, early indications are that it might cause milder illness than previous versions. “That uncertainty is keeping governments guessing and resulting in widely varying strategies for beating back the surge,” according to The Associated Press. Dr Anthony Fauci, top US infectious-disease expert warned that with Omicron, "It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” and he said authorities should seriously consider requiring that domestic airline passengers be vaccinated. “When you make vaccination a requirement, that’s another incentive to get more people vaccinated,” Fauci said. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings has revised its 2021 and 2022 forecasts for global airline traffic downward. The revision is due to a slow rebound in international traffic and still constrained business travel. However, increasing rates of vaccination, a growing number of treatment options and easing of border restrictions across more countries should support an accelerating pace of recovery through 2022 and into 2023. Fitch expects global air traffic to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024. Rating implications of a downward revision to our near-term expectations are neutral. Adequate liquidity will enable most carriers to navigate continued volatility in the operating environment, but individual carrier performance through 2024 will differ, due to varying levels of exposure to international routes and business travel. Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn