Hamilton Centre is NDP's to lose, says expert, but low advance turnout makes outcome hard to predict

An elections expert says the question isn't who will become the member of provincial parliament (MPP) for Hamilton Centre, but by how many votes.

"If [NDP candidate] Sarah Jama does not win this election, it will be a real surprise to most of us watching the campaign," Clifton van der Linden, an assistant professor of political science at Hamilton's McMaster University told CBC Hamilton this week, just days before the byelection.

Another expert says while Hamilton Centre is the NDP's riding to lose, Jama's victory may not be certainty given voter turnout is poised to be abysmal, with just five per cent of people casting a ballot in advanced polls.

"In light of the turnout, I got a feeling [the NDP] is pretty anxious," said Wayne Petrozzi, a professor emeritus in the department of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University.

The winner of Thursday's byelection will replace former NDP leader Andrea Horwath, who stepped down to become mayor last year two months after she was re-elected as MPP in the June provincial election.

Unlike in regular provincial elections, the winner of the byelection won't be part of forming a new government, but rather will need to make their voice heard in Doug Ford's current Progressive Conservative government.

Experts say the byelection results could indicate if local voters have confidence in Jama as the new face of the NDP in that riding.

Here's what else you need to know about the riding and byelection.

The riding's boundaries run north of the Niagara Escarpment and east of Highway 403. It's also west of Kenilworth Avenue North and includes the harbourfront.

It spans 47 kilometres.

Hamilton Centre has been an NDP stronghold. Andrea Horwath held the riding from 2007 to 2022 and won by wide margins.

The riding had 77,599 registered voters in 2022 according to Elections Ontario data. Of those, some 38 per cent voted.

According to the 2016 census, the average size of a family in the riding is two people. About a third of people living in the riding are married and the median age is 40. 

Most listed English as their mother tongue, but there were also thousands of Arabic, Vietnamese, Portuguese and Spanish speakers too.