Gun Sales Typically Soar Before An Election — But Not This Year

People have traditionally hoarded guns as a presidential election approaches, but data says that’s not happening in the 2024 election.

The 2024 presidential election has yet to spark a significant jump in gun sales, according to FBI data released Friday, reversing a two-decade trend in which election years correlate strongly with firearm purchases.

The trend appears to indicate dwindling concerns among gun owners that the election will result in tougher gun laws. But the numbers also reflect the fact that gun purchasing remains at historically high levels following a pandemic gun boom that broadened the demographics of firearm ownership.

“We haven’t seen what we typically see in an election year,” Mark Oliva, the spokesperson for the National Shooting Sports Federation, the firearm industry trade group, told HuffPost. “We’ve seen more of a steady state for background checks for firearm purchases. It’s bucked the trend a little bit.”

Jumps in election-year gun purchasing historically have been driven by fears that widely publicized mass shootings or Democratic victories would prompt stricter gun laws.

But this year, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has tempered her stance on gun reforms while repeatedly highlighting that she owns a pistol she bought for personal protection. And there is no realistic chance for big-ticket gun restrictions like an assault weapons ban, universal background checks or magazine restrictions to pass Congress following an election in which Republicans will likely take control of the Senate.