Gold googly bamboozles import data

India's trade data revised, showing significant drop in import bill, particularly in gold imports, sparking concerns among economists.

In what may constitute the steepest revision in India’s trade data in recent times, the Centre has revised India’s import bill for November 2024 by almost six billion dollars to $63.86 billion from the record tally of $70 billion reported as quick estimates by the Commerce Ministry last month, led by a sharp $5 billion downward revision in gold imports.

In fact, India’s overall import bill for the first eight months of 2024-25, which was reckoned to have grown 8.35% at $486.73 billion, has been pared by almost 3% to $472.5 billion, as per data uploaded on the website of the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) on Wednesday and reviewed by The Hindu. The dramatic revisions triggered alarm among economists, with one terming it as outright ‘statistical harakiri’.

A bulk of this $14 billion drop in the year’s cumulative goods import tally was linked to a revision in the gold import bill from $49.1 billion for April to November 2024, which marked a 49% spike from a year ago, to just $37.4 billion which reflects a mere 13.5% rise.

While gold imports accounted for $11.7 billion of the $14.2 billion revision in the year’s import bill, silver imports accounted for another billion as they were recalibrated to $2.33 billion from $3.28 billion estimated as of December 16. The data revision implies India’s trade deficit this year should be about $14 billion lower than estimated earlier. November’s trade gap remains the worst on record but at around $31.8 billion, from the earlier estimate of $37.84 billion.

October’s import bill has also been revised downward, but by a marginal $0.16 billion to $66.18 billion, which means it still marks India’s highest import bill in a month.

Ajai Srivastava, director of the Global Trade Research Initiative, said the government must explain the rationale behind the revision to ensure India’s economic data retains credibility among investors and financial markets.