FM announces panel to examine challenges of “fast population growth” despite lack of data to support the premise

A high-powered committee will address challenges of population growth and demographic changes in India, despite lack of accurate data.

A high powered committee will be constituted to consider the challenges arising from “fast population growth and demographic changes”, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her Interim Budget speech on Friday. She added that the committee would be mandated to make recommendations to comprehensively address these challenges in relation to the goal of Viksit Bharat, or a developed India.

Her announcement comes against the backdrop of an indefinitely postponed Census, which means that there is little reliable data to back up her assertion of “fast” population growth in the country; the little data that exists suggests that the country’s fertility rate is, in fact, falling below replacement levels. Despite the absence of sound statistics, security concerns in border areas are also being highlighted on the basis of purported demographic changes.

In response to a question from The Hindu on whether the committee announced by Ms. Sitharaman was aimed at population stabilisation and if it would be set in motion after the next Census, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said: “India’s demographics are an opportunity as well as a challenge. The committee will look at those aspects and the final terms of reference will reflect the focus.”

Though the details of the committee are still awaited, the Minister’s speech suggested there has been a “fast” population growth in the country, even though there is no accurate data reflecting such a trend. India has not had a Census since 2011. The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report for the year 2020 said that the total fertility fate (TFR), or the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, has actually dropped to 2, from 2.1 in 2019.

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5 for 2019 to 2021, released in May 2022, stated that the TFR has further declined from 2.2 to 2 at the national level, in comparison to the last such survey held in 2015 and 2016. NFHS-5 said that there are only five outlier States which have a TFR above the replacement level of 2.1 — Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), and Manipur (2.17).

According to Sabu Mathew George, a girl child rights activist, the NFHS data does not give a complete picture as its sample size is too low and the survey is spread over many years. “SRS, which is released every year gives us a better statistical picture than NFHS. Notably, the SRS for the year 2020 was published in 2022. There has been no fresh publication since then. The NFHS-5 was conducted over a period of two years and the data cannot be said to be statistically sound,” Mr. George said.

On September 20 last year, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said in the Lok Sabha that the Census and delimitation of parliamentary seats would only be conducted after the 2024 general election, but did not specify the year that the exercise would take place. The Census, that was to be conducted in two phases in 2020 and 2021, has been postponed indefinitely.