'Fading geopolitical risks': Alberta's new budget outdated and likely amiss by billions

Before Alberta Premier Jason Kenney could unveil his latest budget on Thursday afternoon, much of the document came across as out of date by weeks, if not months.

On the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine, which further fuelled sky-high oil prices, Alberta's budget described "fading geopolitical risks" around the globe.

It couldn't be further from reality.

And for a province so heavily reliant on oil prices and the oilpatch to support its finances and economy, the budget felt archaic and unable to provide an accurate picture of Alberta's financial health.

Based on oil prices today, Alberta could collect more than $10 billion in extra revenue compared with the projections in the budget.

Two years ago, just as the COVID-19 pandemic had hit and was sending global stock markets deep into the red, Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews was presenting the budget and described how "it felt like Rome was burning behind me."

This time behind him, a part of the world was actually being shelled.

The pandemic hammered government revenues as oil prices were in a tailspin. Now, the situation is reversed as money is gushing into government coffers, in part because of the conflict in Ukraine.

We just don't know how much.

"A gradual increase in global supply and fading geopolitical risks are expected to bring oil prices down after a surge in early 2022," the budget states.

During a news conference, Toews acknowledged the situation in Ukraine.

"It's having an impact, no doubt adding a risk premium to energy prices. But you know, energy prices will go up and down," he said.

The budget projects royalties collected from bitumen production in the oilsands to be $10.3 billion in the upcoming year, compared with just $1.5 billion in last year's budget.

That's a 600 per cent increase.