Explained | Understanding the Wagner mutiny Premium

Yevgeny Prigozhin stayed away from directly attacking the Kremlin but he demanded the ouster of Russia’s top defence brass and launched a “march of justice”, with a convoy of armed men and armoured vehicles, towards Moscow.

The story so far: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of Russia’s Wagner Private Military Company, staged a short-lived mutiny against the country’s defence establishment on June 24, pushing Valdimir Putin’s Russia into an unprecedented internal security crisis. Mr. Prigozhin said he was not staging a coup and stayed away from directly attacking the Kremlin. But he demanded the ouster of Russia’s top defence brass and launched a “march of justice”, with a convoy of armed men and armoured vehicles, towards Moscow. Mr. Putin opted to resolve the situation through talks but the fact that a feud between his Ministry of Defence (MoD) and a favourite, powerful warlord came to the brink of an open civil war speaks more of chaos rather than order in Moscow. Mr. Prigozhin has called off his rebellion, but has left open several unaddressed issues which could continue to haunt the Kremlin.

The crisis erupted on Friday (June 23) night when Mr. Prigozhin released a video on Telegram, accusing the defence leadership of ordering strikes on Wagner and killing many of his forces. Hours later, he released another video claiming that his forces have taken over Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, the largest city in southern Russia that sits just 100 k.m. from the Ukrainian border. “Our men die because you treat them like meat,” he said in the video, attacking Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov, who is also in charge of Mr. Putin’s Ukraine campaign. Short videos of Wagner troops and tanks on the streets of Rostov flooded the Internet. Mr. Prigozhin said Wagner would start a “march of justice” towards Moscow.

Immediately, a convoy of his forces started moving along the main highway connecting Rostov to Moscow. During the “march”, Wagner forces shot down six Russian helicopters and a command centre plane, killing 13 servicemen, according to local reports. Roads and bridges were damaged when the Russian troops tried to stop Wagner. A jet fuel depot in the city of Voronezh, north of Rostov, caught fire when it was hit. As the whole world was watching warily the situation in Russia, by Saturday night, the Belarus government announced that Mr. Prigozhin would turn back. By that time, the convoy had crossed Yelets in Lipetsk Oblast, some 200 k.m. south of Moscow. Mr. Prugozhin released another video confirming what the Belarus government said. “It’s over,” he stated.

The crisis between the Wagner chief and Russia’s MoD has been brewing for quite some time. Mr. Prigozhin, a former Kremlin contractor and a close ally of Mr. Putin, accused the MoD leadership of corruption and incompetence. The earliest signs of the feud were visible in February, weeks after Wagner captured Soledar, a small salt-mining town in Donetsk, when Mr. Prigozhin said the Ministry had limited the supply of arms and ammunitions for Wagner whose forces were on the frontlines in Bakhmut. Wagner took Bakhmut in late May, after one of the bloodiest battles of the 21th century. According to Prigozhin, Wagner lost some 20,000 men in the battle, “five times more guys than had been supposed to have died”.

He appeared in a video from the captured city and said the MoD leadership “should be held responsible for their actions”. The capture of Bakhmut seemed to have strengthened Mr. Prigozhin’s standing. It also intensified the feud between the MoD and Wagner. Mr. Prigozhin said his forces came under fire while retreating from Bakhmut. And Wagner arrested one Russian regular serviceman and filmed him. The crisis came into the open on June 10 when Mr. Shoigu issued an order asking all armed volunteers to sign contracts with the MoD before July 1. It was an attempt to bring Wagner’s remaining 25,000 forces under the Defence Ministry’s command. Mr. Prigozhin protested. President Putin continued to remain silent, at least publicly, allowing Mr. Shoigu to go ahead with his plan. It threatened to take Mr. Prigozhin’s base away from him. And then on June 23- 24, Mr. Prigozhin launched his rebellion.

While the crisis was unfolding, Mr. Putin appeared on the state TV, addressing the nation, in which he called the mutiny a “betrayal” and a “stab in the back”. He added he’d ordered the security services to crush the rebellion. But it was easier said than done for the Russian leader. He was already in a dilemma. Mr. Prigozhin was a former close ally. He built Wagner with Mr. Putin’s blessings. And Wagner has turned out to be an important security tool for the Kremlin in recent years. The company has established a deep presence in Africa’s lawless regions providing security to governments, mines, corporations, etc. It allowed the Kremlin to expand its influence in the region without sending the regular Russian troops. 

Wagner also proved to be ruthlessly effective in the Ukraine war. Russia suffered humiliating retreats last year from Kharkiv and Kherson after its initial thrust into Ukraine made limited territorial gains. Since last summer, Russia has taken only two major battlefield victories — Soledar in January and Bakhmut in May — and both were led by Wagner. Wagner’s battlefield victories as well as Mr. Prigozhin’s repeated attack on corruption in the establishment has turned the mercenaries popular at least among the nationalist sections of Russia. So the dilemma Mr. Putin faced was whether he should crush them risking an all-out civil war or find a face saving exit. The realist in Mr. Putin chose the latter. He turned to Alexander Lukashenko, a long-time ally and the President of Belarus, who negotiated with Mr. Prigozhin. By late evening on Saturday, they had a deal. Mr. Prigozhin agreed to turn back. An immediate security crisis has been averted.