Explained | Locating China in the Russia-Ukraine war

Is China’s discourse and rhetoric being reflected in its actions? How is the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting China’s standing on the global stage? Why has China’s neutrality been called a ‘pro-Russia’ neutrality? What have been the latest revelations regarding China aiding Russia in its campaign?

The story so far: As the Russia-Ukraine conflict marches toward the one-year mark, there seem to be hardly any signs of de-escalation. Western powers have started providing powerful offensive weapons to Ukraine, and Russia has threatened grave consequences in response. Moreover, as Western sanctions on Russia progressively tighten, the country is increasingly becoming reliant on China. While China has officially been speaking in a largely neutral language, there have been some instances which have come to light recently of China allegedly assisting Russia in its campaign.

China’s formal stance on the conflict has been on the lines of “all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “support should be given to all efforts that are conducive to peacefully resolving the crisis”, which it has consistently been reiterating on the world stage. With an emphasis on “all countries”, China appears to be demonstrating its position as being equidistant from both the conflicting parties. However, despite this articulation, China’s attitude towards the conflict has often been categorised as a ‘pro-Russian neutrality’.

Russia and China are engaged in a “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era”; and despite the conflict, China has pushed ahead with strengthening its relations with Russia. Moreover, China has painted the U.S. and NATO as prime instigators of the crisis, echoing the Russian narrative in this regard. It also needs to be noted that in the past one year since the start of the conflict, out of the seven resolutions put to vote in total at the UN General Assembly, Security Council, Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization by the West against Russia, China voted against three and abstained from four. In fact, China had only voted in favour of one UN Security Council resolution — the proposal which was raised by Russia on humanitarian aid. Hence, China’s portrayal of a neutral stance has many detractors.

However, as the conflict progressed, China’s rhetoric seems to be becoming less pro-Russia and more neutral in tone. The signaling from China’s top leadership seems to suggest this. Xi Jinping, the President of China, during his November 2022 meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, warned that the conflict should not cross the nuclear threshold; perhaps referring to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats to deter Western support to Ukraine. Also, China’s incoming Foreign Minister Qin Gang had mentioned in his article in The Washington Post in March 2022 that “Had China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it”. Subsequently, in his piece in The National Interest in December 2022, he struck a sympathetic note with the Ukrainians. He had also at other instances emphasised that there are some limits in China’s relations with Russia despite the talks of a “no limits” partnership.

Apart from the higher level leadership in China, there have also been some alleged noises from below the hierarchy which have been critical of Putin’s actions. Nevertheless, the new trend in China’s attitude to the conflict was once again on display during the G-20 summit held at Bali in November 2022. The leaders’ declaration which stated that most members strongly condemned the war, was not concurred with by China only because of its objection to calling the conflict a ‘war’. However, China not opposing the condemnation of the conflict itself, rather than its terminological nuance, is something which has not missed international scrutiny.

Outside the realm of discourse, China’s actions do not seem to carry any such nuances, as it is intervening at least in an indirect manner in the conflict. China has benefited immensely from buying cheap Russian oil and gas. Since the start of the conflict, China has displaced Germany as the largest purchaser of Russian oil, with Russia replacing Saudi Arabia as China’s largest supplier of crude oil. The growing collusion between the two countries is not just limited to hydrocarbons, but also extends to materials and technology.

Recently, The Wall Street Journal has exposed China’s covert assistance to Russia by accessing Russian customs data compiled by C4ADS, an American think tank. The findings suggest that Chinese State Owned enterprises in the defence sector have provided navigation equipment, jamming technology, radar systems and fighter-jet parts to their Russian counterparts. According to the data, several tens of thousands of shipments of dual use goods have been sent by China to Russia, to which the latter would otherwise be having only restricted access due to sanctions. It has also been found that millions of chips have made its way to Russia through China; chips being central to modern military equipments and also subject to increasing sanctions by the West — both against Russia and China.