Experts warn that Canadian weapons shipped to Ukraine could end up in the wrong hands

The risk of Canadian weapons shipments being lost, stolen or otherwise misused is growing as the war in Ukraine enters a chaotic and uncertain new phase.

And with shipments of Canadian weapons still due to arrive in Ukraine, some are warning that parts of those shipments could end up on the black market or be turned against the Ukrainian people by the Russian military or local paramilitary groups.

"There is the real threat that the Ukrainian government can potentially not control all of these weapons," said Kelsey Gallagher, a researcher with Project Ploughshares, a Canadian non-government disarmament group.

"They could end up anywhere."

Since the start of the Russian invasion, Canada has pledged military aid to Ukraine valued in the tens of millions of dollars. The promised aid includes anti-tank systems, rockets, handguns, machine-guns and ammunition.

Those weapons are being provided exclusively to Ukraine's ministry of defence and its armed forces — but experts say it's impossible to know for certain where those weapons might eventually end up.

While Russia has escalated its attacks across Ukraine in recent days, the Ukrainian military has so far managed to fight off Russian advances on most of its largest cities, leaving the outcome of the war entirely uncertain.

"We cannot exclude entirely the possibility that some of that weaponry will end up in the wrong hands," said Costanza Musu, a University of Ottawa professor specializing in international security.

Musu described how Western weapons shipments to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Libya went missing or were misused in the past.

Just last year, the Taliban seized stockpiles of U.S. weapons after the group overthrew the Afghan government.

The chaos that followed the 2011 Libyan civil war resulted in the spread of weapons across Africa. Some of those weapons went to the terrorist groups Boko Haram and al Qaeda via the black market, the United Nations has said.

There are many possible outcomes for the weapons being sent to Ukraine by Canada and NATO allies, although nearly all of them include the risk of materiel going missing.

"Whenever this conflict does subside … these weapons aren't just going to go 'poof' and disappear," Gallagher said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that he would welcome the donation of captured "Western-made" weapons to Russian-backed militant groups in Eastern Ukraine.