Eric Ham: The X-factor in CUSMA talks; a defiant Congress versus an enraged president

Washington political analyst Eric Ham argues that Congress may ultimately determine the fate of CUSMA, as Republican lawmakers increasingly defy President Trump to protect the trade agreement.

In recent weeks, Washington lawmakers have doubled down on their collective support for U.S.-Canada trade relations. The House of Representatives stunned the White House by passing a resolution rebuking the Trump Administration, seeking to repeal stifling tariffs on Canadian goods entering the U.S.

Moreover, during a recent Senate hearing, Republican Mike Crapo extolled the benefits of the trade pact that has defined the region for years. Clearly, the divide between Congress and the White House is widening. In fact, it’s becoming increasingly clear that abandoning CUSMA will not be supported by the legislative branch, setting up a battle royale between the two branches of government.

Many Washington experts believe that based on the way the language was written by Congress in 2018, its functioning role is to solely provide “consultation” to the executive branch during the review of CUSMA. However, because ratification of the trade agreement was required to make the signature pact law, those very lawmakers now see far greater leverage in determining the trade deal’s future.

Inu Manak, a Senior Fellow for International Trade with the Council on Foreign Relations, said it was Congress that passed legislation, making CUSMA the law of the land. Therefore, Capitol Hill will now need to pass additional legislation rescinding language that created the very statute. A move lawmakers will be hesitant to do in light of the seismic ruling by the Supreme Court striking down most of Trump’s tariffs.

This means as both Washington and Ottawa feverishly attempt to cement their respective standing heading into the all important talks this summer, congress, not the White House, could ultimately determine the final outcome of trade between the two nations. Undoubtedly after the successful passage of House Joint Resolution 72, the White House’s leverage going into the review of CUSMA has been greatly diminished. The Senate is expected to take up the resolution soon. The resolution will certainly gain momentum with Republican senators in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs.