Energized opposition and poor economy could spell defeat for Turkey's long-time leader

At the front of an opposition rally in the Turkish industrial city of Bursa on May 11, a group of women lined up behind metal fencing waving flags and chanting about the cost of potatoes and onions. 

"Erdogan's got to go!" they shouted.

The rally, which attracted thousands of people, was held just days before Turkey votes in what is being called a pivotal election that could end Recep Tayyip's Erdogan's 20 years in power and usher in a new political era.

The rising cost of an onion, a kitchen staple, has become a symbol of Turkey's rampant inflation and a fixture in political advertisements for opposition leader Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu.

A 74-year-old former civil servant, Kiliçdaroğlu is leading a six-party alliance that has united in an effort to defeat Erdogan in the presidential election, which takes place May 14. (A parliamentary vote to elect the 600 deputies for Turkey's Grand National Assembly will take place at the same time.) 

"We need to change our country — right now, it is very bad," said Serif Cetinkaya, 18, one of the estimated five million young people who will be voting for the first time in the presidential election.

"It will be a historical election for Turkish citizens," said Seren Sevin Korkmaz, executive director of the Istanbul Political Research Institute. "It's not just electing a presidential candidate or political party, but it is a selection for Turkey's future."

The latest polls sugges  Kiliçdaroğlu has a narrow lead over Erdogan, which may have widened after another opposition candidate with sparse support dropped out of the race this week.

There remains a real possibility that neither presidential candidate will get over the 50 per cent threshold needed for victory, thereby forcing a second round of voting, which would take place on May 28.

Turkish society is polarized between the two political camps and that's played out under a heavy police presence at massive, high-energy rallies held daily throughout the political campaign. 

Erdogan, 69, is a populist with fiercely loyal supporters, but he and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) are facing criticism at home and abroad.

He is accused of mismanaging the economy and driving up inflation, while eroding the country's institutions by squeezing the central bank and exerting control over a wide swath of the media. 

The election also comes three months after a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey killed 50,000 people and displaced more than three million. In the wake of the disaster, Erdogan's government was criticized for not sending out search teams fast enough.

Korkmaz says that after Erdogan was first elected in 2003, he was praised for the country's economic growth and an infrastructure boom. He also strengthened international relations, mainly with the European Union, and solidified Turkey's position as a regional power at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East.