Danielle Smith should take notes from Arizona's election losers

This column is an opinion by Rahim Mohamed, a Calgary-based freelance writer who has studied political science in the United States. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith no doubt has a lot on her plate, but she may also want to watch the recent election returns from the newly-competitive Grand Canyon State closely before her own re-election bid next May.

Alberta is often compared to the deep-red conservative state of Texas on account of surface-level similarities like oil wealth and cattle. In fact, it's grown much closer politically to the "purple" state of Arizona.

It wasn't too long ago that Arizona, home to conservative icons Barry Goldwater and John McCain, was redder than red; a state election handicappers could comfortably put in the Republican column before the first ballot was even cast.

But Arizona's changing demographics have made it one of America's most competitive states in recent election cycles.

Arizona, like Alberta, is a fast-growing place, welcoming tens of thousands of migrants from neighbouring regions each year. Arizona is also notably multi-ethnic and has one of the largest Native American populations in the United States (5.5 per cent of Arizonans and seven per cent of Albertans claim Indigenous ancestry).

And Alberta has also become far more competitive at the ballot box in recent years, having gone from 44 straight years of Progressive Conservative rule to one term of New Democrat government (2015-2019). Now there's another conservative ruling party and what polls show may be yet another change coming next spring. (Both of Arizona's U.S. senators are now Democrats, which hadn't happened since 1952.)

As in Arizona, demographic change has driven Alberta's electorate to the middle; Alberta's population has grown steadily over time, with many new Albertans arriving from more politically moderate provinces. 

Smith might want to pay particular attention to the fate of Kari Lake, the losing Republican candidate for governor.

Much like Smith, Lake is a polished, well-spoken and telegenic politician with a populist bent and a professional background in broadcasting.

Lake, a favourite of ex-president Donald Trump's base, gained national attention by repeatedly claiming that she believes the 2020 presidential election was stolen. This is a theory that Smith herself has lent credence to in social media posts.

Last week, Lake went go down in defeat, as the Arizona governor's race was called for Democrat Katie Hobbs. 

All known election deniers running for statewide office in Arizona have lost or are behind in their races, including Senate candidate Blake Masters and Mark Finchem, the Republican nominee for secretary of state.

Sixty-three per cent of Arizonans told exit pollsters they believed Joe Biden "legitimately won" the 2020 election and nearly three-quarters were "confident" their state's elections were fair. This indicates the rhetoric espoused by Lake and other prominent election deniers failed to sway Arizonans, including many who identify as Republican.