Danielle Smith's rough first impression puts Alberta NDP in likely majority territory: new poll
CBC
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News and The Road Ahead commissioned this public opinion research in mid-October, starting six days after Danielle Smith won the leadership of the United Conservative Party.
As with all polls, this one is a snapshot in time.
This analysis is one in a series of articles to come out of this research. More stories will follow.
Albertans are in position to deliver a majority government to Rachel Notley's NDP, while the public appears to have deep doubts about the United Conservative Party's new leader, Premier Danielle Smith, according to a new poll commissioned by CBC News.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 12 to 30, also suggests the UCP could lose some parts of the province in and around Smith's rural base.
The survey of 1,200 Albertans by Janet Brown Opinion Research also suggests that Albertans believe the provincial government is on the wrong track on every key issue surveyed, such as creating jobs, managing health care and reducing crime.
The numbers suggest an uphill battle lies ahead for a party barely done sweeping up the dropped balloons from her leadership celebration, with little more than half a year until election day.
Since the UCP won power in the 2019 election with 55 per cent support, this new poll suggests their support is now at 38 per cent.
The Opposition NDP, which won 32 per cent of voters in the 2019 election — making Notley a one-term premier — now has the support of 47 per cent of respondents.
Smaller parties barely register on the chart. Three per cent support the Alberta Party, two per cent said they would support the Wildrose Independence Party, while another two per cent prefer other parties, including the Alberta Liberals. An additional eight per cent of respondents are considered "orphaned voters" — those polled who like none of the options.
The poll also gauged respondents' views of Notley and Smith, who won the UCP leadership on Oct. 6 and was sworn in as premier days later.
More than half of respondents said they were not impressed by Smith, while 35 per cent said the same of Notley. Only 18 per cent said they were highly impressed with Smith, while 39 per cent said that about Notley.
"As a result, if elections were held today, I think we get a majority NDP government," said Janet Brown, who conducted the research for CBC News.
"And that really stems from the fact that Albertans are really disappointed in Danielle Smith as a leader."
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