COVID hospitalizations forecast to increase, as BA.5 subvariant continues to circulate in Hamilton

The current rate of COVID-19 transmission in Hamilton is moderate and stable but new data shows that the virus's wastewater signal has increased over the past two weeks, and projections are for an increase in cases and hospitalizations over the course of the fall.

Scarsin COVID-19 forecasting, published by the city on Wednesday, continues to predict that Hamilton's current seventh COVID-19 wave is likely to increase in October and peak in December.

In the near-term, new hospital admissions of Hamiltonians, including intensive-care admissions, are predicted to increase in the fall and early winter as Hamiltonians move indoors and the more infectious BA.5 sub-variant continues to circulate. 

About 528 new hospital admissions of Hamiltonians are predicted from Sept. 26 to Dec. 31, the forecast shows.

Hospital admissions by age group are predicted to be about six per cent in those aged 0-19, 15 per cent in those aged 20-59, 50 per cent for 60-79 and 29 per cent for those 80 years and older.

At a board of health meeting on Monday, Erin Rodenburg, epidemiologist with Hamilton Public Health Services said that in addition to COVID-19, hospitalizations will likely be impacted by influenza and other respiratory related admissions over the next several weeks.

"We expect to see an increased number of hospitalizations leading into these winter months, with the peak possibly reaching about 12 new admissions per day," Rodenburg said.

"Given that the respiratory season has historically continued into the later winter months, it is possible that these increased hospitalizations could be sustained depending on the local COVID-19 activity as well as the activity surrounding public health measures."

According to the city, the number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations is currently at 11, with a test positivity at 14.0 per cent. As of Dec. 31, testing for COVID-19 has been limited to the most vulnerable individuals and individuals associated with the highest risk settings.

The number of  St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton staff and physicians self-isolating at home currently stands at 130.

Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) has temporarily suspended its COVID information dashboard as it implements a new hospital information system. But HHS says 119 staff and physicians are self-isolating due to COVID-19.

Hamilton has 17 active outbreaks in high-risk settings as of Sept. 27, while the city's pandemic fatalities have now reached 612.

On Monday all Hamiltonians 18 years of age and older became eligible for a bivalent COVID-19 booster, as long as they've completed their primary vaccine series, it's been at least six months since their most recent dose, and they have not been infected with COVID-19 over the past three months. 

The province made the bivalent vaccine available to its most vulnerable populations earlier this month, but said appointments to receive the new shot would be open to all residents 18 or over as of Sept. 26.