COVID case count doesn't communicate Omicron reality in Sask.: doctor
CBC
A public health doctor in Saskatchewan says the real number of COVID-19 cases in the province is likely much higher than what's being reported in official data.
Dr. Cory Neudorf said the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and recent changes to the province's testing is helping widen that gap.
As of Dec. 30, asymptomatic people in Saskatchewan who test positive on a rapid test are no longer recommended to get a PCR test to confirm their status. Instead, they should assume they have COVID-19, self-isolate and inform their contacts.
This means many people who test positive on a rapid test will enver show up on the province's confirmed totals.
"That's really the only way that we can report positive cases because the rapid antigen tests are self-administered, and there's no official report of those because it's not done by a lab," Neudorf said.
"So we're going to see a drop in positives because of that change, and in the testing procedures."
Dr. Saqib Shahab, the province's chief medical health officer, said last week that because of factors like asymptomic spread, provincial data has never been able to capture the full scope of the virus.
"We were identifying maybe 60 to 70 per cent of all cases. But right now, you know, that would be even lower. Even if we stuck to PCR testing, most people remain asymptomatic and transmit," Shahab said on Dec. 30.
Neudorf said the Omicron variant is spreading faster and easier than others, with mild symptoms reported in immunized or previously infected people.
"What we expect is many, many more people to be positive, including more breakthrough cases or reinfections," he said.
He said monitoring the viral load in wastewater samples is one way public health gathers real-time data. Neudorf also noted outbreaks can give further insights into how Omicron spreads.
Last Thursday, Premier Scott Moe said provincial officials are looking at hospitalizations and ICU admissions as key indicators.
Neudorf saidd those have always been a lagging indicator of COVID'S impact within a community.
He said the percentage of positive cases requiring hospital or ICU care is expected to go down, but they could still add pressure if numbers climb too quickly.
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