COVID-19 cases are ticking up in Toronto. Should you rush to get vaccinated?

New COVID-19 boosters are expected to roll out in Toronto — and across Canada — this fall.  

Those new vaccines come as early signals forecast Canada is potentially entering a fall COVID-19 wave, with positive COVID-19 tests and hospitalizations on the rise across the country, according to new data from the Public Health Agency of Canada.

In Toronto, health officials are also tracking a small peak in some COVID-19 activity. The latest data from the city shows the seven-day average of new cases and the number outbreaks in institutions have been slowly climbing over the past 30 days. 

Despite that slight uptick, research shows that a majority of Canada's population has developed some level of immunity against the virus thanks to high rates of vaccination. However, health experts warn there is still the potential for lasting health impacts from first or repeat infections such as long COVID, and new subvariants could still pose risks. 

Here's what you need to know about the population's level of protection, and whether or not you should get the jab. 

Health officials say small waves of the virus are expected this time of year, especially as people start spending more time indoors as temperatures drop. 

"We've seen this year after year after year now, that we are going to see a rise in cases predictably as we move from the summer into the fall," said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at University Health Network.

For now, Toronto Public Health (TPH) says community levels of transmission in Toronto remain relatively low, adding that current trends for the virus are currently no cause for concern.

"Every fall we see an increase in COVID activity...We're monitoring the data and preparing if there might be an early start," said Irene Armstrong, an associate medical office of health with the city's public health agency.

Dr. Fahad Razak, an internal medicine physician at St. Michael's Hospital, said subvariants play a role in the spread of the virus.

"We shouldn't be surprised. The virus mutates in order to survive," Razak said. 

One subvariant in particular — a lineage named BA.2.86 — has caught the attention of the medical community. In a tweet, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control said it is monitoring the subvariant, which was first detected in the United States, Denmark and Israel.

"It is heavily, heavily mutated. This version of the virus has more than 30 mutations," Razak said.

Though it's unclear if the strain will cause more severe illness, Razak said it's one to "very carefully watch" over the coming weeks.