Conservative, NDP caucuses weighing a budget vote that could trigger an election: sources

The Conservative and NDP caucuses are grappling with what to do about the upcoming federal budget and whether they want to be part of an effort to trigger an election by voting it down, multiple sources told CBC News.

Senior Conservative sources say the party's leadership does not want an election right now, but they are also opposed to voting for the new Liberal government's first budget given the potential reputational risk of backing Prime Minister Mark Carney and an agenda they simply don't support.

A Conservative source says speculation about the Liberals potentially losing the budget vote is “not contrived” as, at this time, there are not enough votes for it to pass in the House after it is tabled on Tuesday.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made a series of demands to the Liberals in exchange for votes on the budget, including scrapping the industrial carbon tax and keeping the deficit below $42 billion. But there is no realistic expectation that they will be fulfilled given the government has already signalled they are a non-starter.

The Bloc Québécois has also made some expensive demands, including increased Old Age Security payouts, more generous health transfers to the provinces and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers — policies that are unlikely to be enacted in full given the government is intent on reining in spending.

But the Liberals have made some outreach to the Bloc and Thursday agreed to include at least one of their demands — a crackdown on a tax-evasion scheme the trucking industry has long opposed.

The Conservatives have had conversations with the NDP and the Bloc about how to approach the vote, according to sources. CBC News is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly about internal discussions.

One senior NDP source and two Conservative sources say the path believed to be most likely is that some of the NDP’s seven MPs could abstain from voting, allowing the budget to pass.

At Wednesday's Conservative caucus meeting, MPs were told their party's plan is to avoid criticizing the NDP for the foreseeable future, sources told CBC News.

The Liberal minority government needs three additional votes, or two if the Speaker were to break a tie.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May told CBC News Thursday she would not support a budget that includes any fossil fuel subsidies, but otherwise is waiting to see it before deciding how she will vote.

If the Liberals can't cobble together enough support, the government could fall and Canadians could be headed for an election before Christmas.

Conservative sources who are familiar with party outreach on the budget said the NDP MPs are not aligned — and that the caucus functions without much structure.

A Conservative source says the small NDP caucus may have conflicting priorities — which could make it easier to convince individual MPs to vote for the budget.