City says province's cost estimate for Green Line LRT falls $1.3B short

The City of Calgary says the Alberta government's revised Green Line LRT alignment would cost $7.5 billion — and not the $6.2 billion figure both the city's previously approved plan and the new provincial plan suggest.

Calgary city councillors met Tuesday to discuss the details of the province's new project plan that was announced last Friday, attached to a confidential report from infrastructure consulting firm AECOM. 

AECOM was hired by the province for $2.5 million earlier this fall and tasked with designing the new alignment, which stretches just over 17 kilometres and has 12 stations instead of the previous plan's seven. 

"Based on the $6.2 billion rough order of magnitude estimate provided by AECOM, the province's external consultant, the city identified $1.3 billion in known costs and risks that were not included in their work," reads a city news release Tuesday evening.

"At $7.5 billion, this exceeds the $7.2 billion cost estimate, based on the city's 60% design for the Shepard to Eau Claire tunneled alignment, presented in July 2024."

Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek said on Tuesday that AECOM's report misses important information about costs that have already been sunk into the project. Calgarians need to understand what the province is proposing before council can commit to the new plan, she said, adding that residents and businesses downtown don't know what the new alignment's effect will be.

"We've been very clear that risk is a very real issue for our city, and we've been very clear that we think there's some errors with the numbers," Gondek said.

 "We're trying to be as transparent as we can in indicating what it is that we need to discuss further. If the province chooses to walk away now, if they choose to take their funding and kill this project for a second time, that's on them. We're still here."

All of this comes after the province announced a significant revision of the city's previous Green Line LRT plan on Friday, in a saga involving multiple disagreements between levels of government about how the project would take form.  The new iteration of the Green Line would feature no tunneling through Calgary's downtown, which drew criticism from the province in the project's last alignment. 

The revised plan has the LRT running through the downtown core along 10th Avenue on elevated tracks, then curving north to Seventh Avenue, enabling riders to connect with the Blue Line and Red Line.

AECOM's full report remains confidential. The city says it will continue working collaboratively with the province in order to find a solution.

Council ultimately voted on Tuesday to keep negotiating with the province on the Green Line's alignment should certain terms be met, such as sharing risk and cost overrun liability. Gondek also plans to request the province release AECOM's full report with sensitive information redacted.