China’s Two Sessions to project stability with expected GDP trim, cautious diplomacy

China's annual Two Sessions are set to project stability with an expected GDP trim and cautious diplomatic tone amid global uncertainties. Read more at straitstimes.com.

BEIJING – When China’s annual political gathering kicks off on March 4, few expect headline-grabbing policy surprises.

Instead, China watchers and investors are expecting Beijing to project steadiness, with a possible modest trim to the growth target, targeted fiscal support and a controlled diplomatic tone ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit later in the month.

Thousands of delegates from across the country will gather in Beijing for parallel sets of meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC), or parliament, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body comprising experts, business leaders, celebrities and representatives from political parties other than the ruling Communist Party of China.

After years of property turmoil and deflationary pressures, the central question at the Lianghui, or Two Sessions, is whether Beijing can keep growth at “around 5 per cent” – the target for the last three years – without resorting to significantly stronger stimulus.

With two-thirds of Chinese provinces already trimming their own targets, many economists expect Premier Li Qiang to lower the national GDP target to a range of 4.5 to 5 per cent when the NPC opens on the morning of March 5.

Of the 31 provinces, 21 have lowered growth targets compared with 2025, either by reducing the numerical goal or by shifting from “above” a certain rate to “around” that rate.