Carney heads to Europe with military spending on the agenda

Prime Minister Mark Carney departs Sunday to meet with European and NATO allies amid heightened tension in the Middle East and mere hours after the United States joined Israel's war with Iran.

The first stop will be in Brussels on Monday, where the prime minister is expected to sign a comprehensive security and defence partnership with the European Union.

U.S. President Donald Trump bailed early on last week's G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alta., saying he was needed at the White House to deal with the evolving war where Israel is attempting to not only destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, but to instigate regime change.

Early Sunday, the U.S. military bombed three sites in Iran. Addressing the nation from the White House, Trump claimed Iran's key nuclear sites were "completely and fully obliterated." He also warned Tehran against carrying out retaliatory attacks against the United States, saying Iran has a choice between "peace or tragedy."

Following his meeting with EU leaders, Carney heads to The Hague, in the Netherlands, for a slimmed-down NATO summit.

Janice Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, said Western allies are unlikely to formally discuss the war in the Middle East because it is outside of the Euro-Atlantic sphere.

But, in an interview before the U.S. strikes occurred, she said the war is a "very dynamic situation that could easily escalate."

It may not be on the agenda, but leaders "will spend a huge amount of time talking about it" informally, Stein said.

Most of the formal agenda at the NATO summit will focus on the U.S. demand that allies up defence spending to five per cent of their gross domestic product (3.5 per cent on direct military spending and 1.5 per cent on defence infrastructure).

Recent data published by NATO shows the U.S. was projected to have spent 3.38 per cent of its GDP on defence in 2024. Interestingly, the Pentagon recently published a chart that projected U.S. defence spending in 2024 — as a share of its economy — at 2.7 per cent. 

While those calculations were released prior to the Trump administration's recent budget proposals to Congress, defence experts suggest the proposals won't make much of a difference.

"I will highlight that U.S. defence spending itself is low," said Seth Jones, who heads up the defence and security wing of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He says the next U.S. budget's defence spending will likely be lower, as a share of the country's economy, than the Carter administration in the 1970s.

"[That] gives one a sense of how the U.S. talks a big game on having everybody else increase their defense, but the U.S. is actually quite small, historically speaking," he said.