Canadians vote today after fierce campaign shaped by Trump

Millions of Canadians are expected to cast their ballots today in a pivotal election that will decide who will lead the country through a trade battle with the United States.

The 36-day campaign has been nothing short of remarkable for the leading contenders: Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Just a few months ago, polls suggested Poilievre was all but guaranteed to snap up the majority government he'd long been waiting for, after Canadians soured on former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

Then came Trudeau's early January resignation, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and persistent barbs about making Canada the 51st state — flipping the political script.

With Trump announcing, pausing, then re-announcing devastating tariffs on Canadian goods, the campaign largely became a race about who is best to steer Canada through global uncertainty.

While the overall margin between the two leading parties narrowed in the final stretch, polls suggest the race is the Liberal Party's to lose.

According to CBC's Poll Tracker, the Liberals maintain an edge in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, as well as in B.C. and Atlantic Canada, and are favoured to win the most seats.

But it's far from a done deal and as the leaders and their teams have repeated throughout the campaign: the only poll that matters is on election day.

Carney tried to define himself as a steady, mature leader who is best to deal with the unpredictable president and map out a new economic and security relationship.

While criss-crossing the country, the freshly minted leader pointed to his time as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years as evidence that Canadians should trust him to steer the country's economy through turbulent times. 

In one of his most repeated campaign speech lines, Carney argued that "Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us."

"And well, that will never happen," he frequently told crowds that gathered to hear the political newbie speak.

Carney has had a whirlwind 2025 so far. He handily won the Liberal leadership March 9 and was sworn in as prime minister just nine days before triggering an election. 

Carney's greatest weakness going into the campaign was expected to be his shaky French, which he graded six out of 10, but he emerged from the French debate and an ever-important interview with the popular show Tout le monde en parle relatively unscathed.