Canadian families could pay $1,000 more for groceries in 2026, report warns

Canadians could face grocery bills up to $1,000 higher in 2026 as food prices rise 4-6 per cent, with restaurants and meat seeing the biggest jumps.

Canada’s Food Price Report is warning Canadians to brace for even higher food costs next year, with rising prices in multiple sectors set to continue putting pressure on household grocery budgets.

The 16th annual edition of the report, released Thursday by Dalhousie University in partnership with universities across the country, says it expects food prices to rise between four and six per cent in 2026.

“For the average family of four, we’re expecting them to spend about $1,000 more next year to buy the exact same amount of food,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, professor and senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.

The report’s previous projections for 2025 proved largely accurate. Last year, it forecast overall food prices would climb between three and five per cent. According to the latest Consumer Price Index data, grocery prices rose four per cent, landing squarely in that range.

Several food categories also tracked closely with expectations, including dairy, restaurant meals and seafood.

But the report says meat and “other food products” rose faster than projected, while bakery prices grew more slowly than expected. Prices for fruits and vegetables fell, offering rare relief at the checkout.

The first table in the report outlines the 2026 food price forecast by category, showing anticipated increases across each section.

Meat is expected to see the largest jump, rising between five and seven per cent, with the widest uncertainty range among all categories. Bakery items, vegetables and restaurant meals are also projected to climb noticeably, while fruit and seafood are expected to see more modest increases.