Canadian cities cutting transit services could cause ‘death spiral,’ researcher warns

While cities like Montreal and Halifax are reducing bus routes to save money or deal with staff shortages, Toronto's budget is proposing a cut in transit service.

Canadian cities should be nimble and prioritize service if they want to sustain and strengthen public transit systems in a time of declining ridership and labour challenges, a transit researcher says.

While cities like Montreal and Halifax are reducing bus routes to save money or deal with staff shortages, a transit and rail research consultant and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Toronto says these decisions contribute to a transportation “death spiral.”

“There are two negative feedback loops going on in transit,” Willem Klumpenhouwer said in a recent interview. When routes are cut and transit is less frequent or convenient, ridership declines. When there are fewer riders paying fares, cities lose income and are inclined to further reduce routes.

“Then you have a death spiral, as people call it,” he said.

This same cycle is affecting transit labour, Klumpenhouwer said, because as transit operators leave the job, remaining staff are asked to work more hours. “That leads to higher attrition and less hiring, so there’s that same feedback loop.”

Shane O’Leary, president of Amalgamated Transit Union Local 508, which represents transit operators in Halifax, said the city has been losing staff at an unprecedented rate over the past year as workers deal with extended work hours and frustrated transit riders who are upset by service reductions.

O’Leary gave the example of someone on their way to work who’s waiting for a bus that doesn’t show up as scheduled.

“Now I’m dealing with possibly being late to work or I’m worrying about child care, and who do I take it out on?” he said.