Canada's oil and gas emissions cap is coming — here's what to expect

The federal government says Canada's promised oil and gas emissions cap framework could drop any day.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault — now in Dubai for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, better known as COP28 — said Friday he would be "shocked if this framework wasn't presented at the end of this conference."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed the Liberal government's plan to impose a lid on emissions from the oil and gas sector at a previous COP summit  in 2021.

On Friday, Guilbeault said recent legal setbacks were among the reasons the government is taking more time to develop the framework.

"The Supreme Court decision on impact assessment and the federal court ruling on plastics… has meant that we have to make sure that it tackles pollution without infringing on provincial jurisdiction," he said.

The Supreme Court recently ruled that a federal law governing environmental impact assessments stepped into provincial jurisdiction, while a Federal Court decision struck down Environment Canada's designation of all plastic manufactured items as "toxic."

Ottawa's own emissions modelling and independent forecasts show Canada is not on track to meet its emissions reduction targets.

Since 2005, Canada has seen deep emissions cuts in the electricity sector and some modest emissions reductions in other places. Emissions from the oil and gas industry, meanwhile, have grown along with production.

The Canadian Climate Institute says its independent modelling shows that an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector is needed to achieve this country's climate targets.

A cap alone will not do the trick, one of the institute's directors, Anna Kanduth, said during a recent briefing with reporters.

But pairing a cap with strengthened methane regulations could help Canada hit its 2030 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 per cent below 2005 levels, she added.

In October, Canada pledged to accelerate its methane emission reduction plan for the oil and gas sector to achieve a cut of at least 75 per cent below 2012 levels.

"Reducing emissions from the oil and gas is critical for bringing Canada's 2030 targets within reach," Kanduth said. "And an emissions cap alongside those deeper regulations could do just that."

Before landing in Dubai, Guilbeault hinted that Canada might release strengthened methane regulations at COP28. He also said Canada is working with Washington on the file.