Canada leaving ‘crisis phase’ of pandemic but resurgence possible as measures ease: Tam

While easing of health measures could result in a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Canada, the impact on hospitalizations is forecast to be lower, according to PHAC modelling.

New federal data shows that while Canada is exiting the “critical phase” of the COVID-19 pandemic, easing of public health measures could still lead to resurgence, chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said Friday.

“As we transition out of the crisis phase, we can continue to rely on crucial tools for prevention, early detection and response, including vaccines, testing, robust surveillance, treatments, and public health and health-care infrastructure,” Tam said at a virtual COVID-19 update.

She explained that at this moment, there’s a significant buildup of immunity in the population and that Canada has the tools to manage the pandemic going forward without the restrictive public health measures.

“They may still be needed if there was a very severe variant that escapes vaccine immunity, for example. So we don’t want to completely reduce all of our capacities … but for now given the projections … we should be able to return to normalcy,” said Tam.

While the easing of public health measures could result in a resurgence of cases in Canada, Tam said the impact on hospitalizations is forecast to be lower.

According to the data released by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), there are two possible future scenarios when it comes to hospitalizations. The first is the expectation that there will be a limited resurgence in daily cases, with potential for a more modest resurgence in daily hospital admissions towards the spring.

The second is that Canada could expect a larger resurgence in daily Omicron cases, potentially going beyond previously reported peaks, but the peak of daily hospital admissions could be much lower.

In the meantime, Tam said COVID-19 will continue to evolve.