Can Putin be trusted to honour a ceasefire? Unless Russian troops withdraw, Ukrainians are skeptical
CBC
In the 22 years that Vladimir Putin has ruled Russia, his ability to start wars with his neighbours has always exceeded his interest or ability in ending them.
Russia's borders are cluttered by unresolved or frozen conflicts — from the Crimea and Donbas regions of Ukraine to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia provinces of Georgia.
All are examples of the Kremlin invading or sending in its troops and then never leaving.
The ceasefires aimed at pausing Russian military advances simply became permanent features, heavily weighted in Russia's favour.
Which is why now, even as the civilian injury and death toll mounts, so many Ukrainians are resolutely opposed to agreeing to a ceasefire with Russia so long as its troops continue to occupy Ukrainian territory.
"Ukraine doesn't want this scenario, and that is why the majority believe there should not be a ceasefire unless there is a Russian withdrawal," said Orysia Lutsevych, manager of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, a British foreign policy think-tank in London.
"If there is a tactical pause or a ceasefire or a conflict that freezes because Russia decides it doesn't want to fight anymore, then Russia will regroup and strike back in one or two years," Lutsevych, who's originally from Lviv, Ukraine, told CBC News in an interview.
On Tuesday, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators left the latest round of so-called peace talks in Turkey on what appeared to be an upbeat note, with both sides suggesting there had been progress.
Russia would begin to withdraw its military forces around the capital Kyiv, as well as the northern city of Chernihiv, to "increase mutual trust" and "create conditions for further negotiations," according to one top Russian official.
For its part, Ukraine said it would leave the contentious issue of the status of the Crimean Peninsula — seized by Russia in 2014 — for another round of discussions that could take up to 15 years, effectively sidelining the question.
Negotiators for President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined a scenario where Ukraine would remain neutral, would not host foreign armies on its soil and would not join the Western military alliance NATO.
Instead, Ukraine would have its security guaranteed by a series of bilateral treaties with Western nations, possibly including Canada.
The Ukrainian proposal calls for Russia not to block its aspirations to join the European Union.
Russia's top negotiator in Turkey, Vladimir Medinsky, met reporters afterwards, read Ukraine's proposal into the record and then said it would be taken to Putin for discussion.
