Can Iran move from rallies to regime change? Only with a clear plan, says renowned dissident

It's rare to hear from a dissenting voice from inside Iran, particularly now in the midst of yet another crackdown on anti-regime protesters.

But in April, to the surprise of many, prominent thought-leader Majid Tavakoli held a talk and Q&A on Twitter Spaces from inside the Islamic Republic. The topic: Why haven't the nationwide protests led to political change?

With just a few hours' notice, almost 200,000 listeners tuned in to hear the political activist's critique of the diaspora opposition's inability so far to go beyond the general slogans of the Women, Life, Freedom movement — a rallying call for protests in Iran and around the world. 

Tavakoli, who first rose to prominence after delivering a powerful speech on the steps of Tehran's Amirkabir University, forever etching him in the minds of Iranians as being at the heart of the 2009 student protests, argued that political change has not occurred due to the absence of a detailed and transparent "plan for victory."

"No one has any type of vision or conceptualization.… If I'm going to speak very clearly: without creating an image, the future is unclear," Tavakoli said.

Tavakoli also questioned the anatomy of the street protests, concluding that gathering publicly, without a clear purpose, could not trigger regime change.

"What does it mean to come to the streets? To break a few windows and doors? Capture a building? Capture Tehran? Should everyone march toward Tehran? Or capture a few cities? We have never talked about this."

The emergence of a revolutionary anti-regime movement has been brewing for years in Iran. When nationwide protests persisted in 2022 in response to the death of 22-year old Mahsa Jina Amini after she was arrested by the regime's so-called morality police, many wondered whether this time could spell the end of the Islamic Republic's rule.

Asef Bayat, scholar and professor of sociology and Middle East studies at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, agrees the key ingredients for a revolution just haven't happened.

"It needs a continuous collective campaign that is able to put pressure on the incumbent state so that segments of the elites, including the repressive forces, defect or sympathize with the people," he told CBC News.

"Such a movement also needs some kind of organization, some kind of leadership, a vision of the future, and above all the confidence of the people." 

Tavakoli, 37, who has been arrested several times since 2006, previously said on Twitter that he has served a cumulative seven years in prison for his writing and activism. He was most recently arrested in the midst of the Mahsa Amini protests, and was released on bail earlier this year. 

Tavakoli and other analysts suggest that while Iranians want regime change, it cannot be done without a focused and transparent plan by opposition forces outside of Iran.

That's in part due to the regime's ability to keep military forces loyal — which analysts have pointed out is a crucial factor for the outcome of any revolt.