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By the numbers: Here's what needs to happen in a budget vote to avoid an election

By the numbers: Here's what needs to happen in a budget vote to avoid an election

CBC
Friday, November 07, 2025 11:46:54 AM UTC

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government was elected just a few seats shy of a majority, meaning the Liberals will need the co-operation of one of the opposition parties to pass their budget.

The budget is considered a confidence vote, meaning the government will fall if it fails to pass and Canada would be heading for a second election this year.

While the Liberals gained an extra vote on the same day the budget dropped, — via former Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossing the floor — the Liberals are still a couple votes short of a majority in the House.

Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux also announced Thursday he will resign as an MP — but it's unclear when his resignation will take effect.

The government survived one confidence vote on Thursday evening — a Conservative amendment that called on the House to reject the budget. A similar vote on a Bloc amendment is taking place Friday.

The budget itself will be put to a vote sometime after Remembrance Day.

Here's how the votes need to land for Carney’s budget to pass — and avoid sending Canadians back to the polls.

With 22 seats, the Bloc Québécois has more than enough seats to get the Liberal budget over the finish line.

The Liberals currently have 170 seats, but that includes the Speaker who would only vote to break a tie. Therefore the Liberals have 169 votes from their own ranks.

Combined, the Liberals and Bloc have 191 seats, which would outvote the Conservatives, NDP and Greens.

But the Liberals will likely need to make changes if they want to get the Bloc onside.

Leader Yves-François Blanchet moved an amendment that the House “reject” the budget because it failed to meet the Bloc’s demands. Blanchet also said on budget day that he could “hardly see” how his party could back the budget.

But the government can still make changes to the budget before further votes come — and it already includes a nugget that one Bloc MP might find hard to reject.

The budget includes support for the Exploramer Shark Pavilion in Sainte-Anne-des-Monts, Que., and the Chantier Naval Forillon shipyard in Gaspé — both of which are in Alexis Deschênes’s riding, potentially offering incentive for the new MP to allow the budget to move through the House.

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