Beef prices are soaring. Here's why Canada is facing record-low cattle numbers

If there is a small bit of positive news for those who love to grill a steak in the summer or enjoy a roast dinner during the chilly winter months, beef prices are expected to climb further in 2026 — but not by as much as in recent years.

“The bad news is it won’t be going down,” said Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph in Guelph, Ont.

Beef prices are at record highs after climbing 16 per cent over the last year and up 35 per cent in October compared with the five-year average. The retail price of beef is expected to creep up again next year.

The reasons behind the hefty price tags are as simple as supply and demand, with the supply of cows historically low and demand incredibly high. Yet the situation is much more complex, with ranchers facing difficult decisions on the farm and a commodity impacted by several factors, such as international trade and severe weather events.

In general, meat prices rose by the highest rate of any food category in 2025, driven by the soaring cost of beef, according to the recent national food price report by Dalhousie University in Halifax.

There are many considerations as experts weigh the question of when shoppers may finally see relief at the meat counter.

Whether it’s burgers on the barbecue or stew on a chilly winter evening, there are certain foods that become traditions and part of the food culture. Those habits that can hold social significance can help explain why demand is still high for beef, regardless of the sticker shock at restaurants and grocers.

"We like beef, and beef is the favourite protein of Canadians,” von Massow said. "Canadians were very much creatures of habit. So if something was in our basket at the grocery store last week, it's going to be in our basket at the grocery store this week."

Still, one noticeable trend is that some shoppers are avoiding the higher-priced items for secondary cuts, such as choosing a blade steak instead of a roast. “Rather than leave beef, we’re seeing people trade down for beef,” he said.

The robust demand for beef can also be attributed to people wanting more protein in their diet.

“Beef demand has been phenomenal,” said Kevin Grier, a livestock market analyst based in Guelph. “If you want to know who to blame for high beef prices, look in the mirror,” he said.

So far, record prices don't seem to be scaring away many shoppers. But that demand is only one reason why prices continue to climb.

For many decades, the number of cattle in Canada has been on the decline, and severe drought in parts of Western Canada in recent years caused the herd size to decrease further. Drought conditions drove up the price of feed at the same time as other expenses were on the rise, such as fertilizer, labour and energy prices.

The herd size is at its lowest level in Canada since the 1980s. In the United States, it’s the smallest since the 1960s.