Automakers want Canada to scrap its EV sales mandate. What would that do to emissions?

When Prime Minister Mark Carney met with automotive sector CEOs Wednesday about U.S. trade negotiations, one of the key issues the industry said they wished to discuss was the government's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

The mandate requires a certain percentage of light duty vehicles — passenger cars, SUVs and trucks — that are sold to be either fully-electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, starting with 20 per cent in 2026 and rising to 100 per cent by 2035. 

Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association, told CBC News on the way to the meeting that "The targets that have been established cannot be met" given current market forces.

He later added that Canada already has other policies to meet its greenhouse gas emission targets.

Burning fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel is the main cause of climate change, and transportation is the second-biggest source of emissions in Canada after the oil and gas industry. 

The ZEV mandate is part of Canada's strategy to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and decarbonize the transportation sector. 

But if the mandate were scrapped, analysts say that would hurt efforts to fight climate change — and make it harder to find an EV for sale in parts of the country. Here's a closer look at why.

In 2023, transportation accounted for 23 per cent of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions. Unlike some sectors that have cut emissions since 1990, transportation emissions have grown 33 per cent, driven by both freight heavy-duty trucks and passenger light trucks. 

Passenger vehicles alone accounted for about 12 per cent of Canada's emissions in 2023.

The Canadian Climate Institute, a climate policy think-tank partly funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada, modelled 60 potential net-zero scenarios and found that switching to zero-emission vehicles was central to every one.

Arthur Zhang, senior research associate at the institute, said EVs are "one of the most reliable technologies we have for reducing emissions in the transportation sector."

It aims to solve a few problems.

One of the challenges up until now has been the lack of availability of electric vehicles in many parts of Canada.

In a recent interview, Cara Clairman, president and CEO of Plug'n Drive, an organization focused on public education about EVs, said in many parts of Canada, it's still impossible to find an EV to test drive, due to low availability at dealerships. The exceptions are B.C. and Quebec, which have their own ZEV sales mandates.